Central Bank of Russia maintains 2025 inflation forecast at 7%-8%, expects return to target in 2026

MOSCOW. April 25 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia has maintained its 2025 inflation forecast at 7%-8% and still expects a return to the target level of 4% in 2026, the CBR said in a press release issued following the meeting of its board of directors.

Seasonally adjusted price growth slowed to an average of 8.3% in Q1 on an annualized basis, compared to 12.9% in Q4 2024. The corresponding figure for core inflation was 8.9% on average, down from 13.4% in the previous quarter.

The decline in inflationary pressure increasingly reflects the impact of tight monetary conditions on demand, the CBR said. However, it is still too early to judge the sustainability of these emerging trends. As of April 21, annual inflation was estimated at 10.3%.

Inflation expectations among households, businesses and financial market participants have not changed significantly since March. Overall, they remain elevated, which hinders a more rapid slowdown in inflation.

In its baseline scenario, the CBR expects inflationary pressure to continue declining in the coming months. This will be supported by cooling credit activity and high saving behavior.