Russia's Econ Ministry raises 2025 inflation forecast to 7.6% from 4.5%

MOSCOW. April 21 (Interfax) - The Russian Economic Development Ministry has raised its inflation forecast for 2025 to 7.6% from the 4.5% projected in the previous forecast it made last September, a ministry spokesman told reporters, citing draft forecast scenarios for Russia's socioeconomic development in 2025-2028 that the ministry has submitted to the government.

The annual inflation forecasts for 2026-2028 remain unchanged at the target rate of 4.0%.

"For this year we estimate inflation at a level of 7.6%, based on the accumulated dynamic of the end of last year and beginning of this year. This is approximately in the middle of the range of 7-8% anticipated by the Bank of Russia. We agree with it, but, again, there are various possibilities for the development of events," the spokesman said.

"Month-on-month inflation is slowing. Inflation is slowing very significantly in non-food goods, inflation is slowing a little less for food. Last year, inflation was fairly low in the first half of the year, it began to rapidly accelerate in the second half. There was no traditional deflation at the end of summer last year. This year, if things go as they should with seasonality and the harvest, and the Agriculture Ministry says that everything will be good with the harvest, then in summer we'll see annual inflation slow. Whether this starts in May or June is hard to say right now," he said, when asked when annual inflation will peak.

The Federal Statistics Service reported earlier that inflation in Russia was 2.99% in the period from the start of this year to April 14 and annual inflation exceeded 10.3% as of April 14.

The Central Bank in March confirmed its February inflation forecast of 7.0-8.0% for 2025 and 4% for 2026. The consensus forecast of economists polled by Interfax at the start of April projects that inflation will be 7.1% in 2025 (unchanged from the March poll) and 4.9% in 2026 (up from 4.7%).