OPEC+ actual oil production increase could reach 20,000 bpd in April, 225,000 bpd in May - IEA

MOSCOW. April 15 (Interfax) - OPEC+ countries' oil production growth in April may amount to just 20,000 barrels per day (bpd), rising to 225,000 bpd in May, International Energy Agency (IEA) analysts said in their latest monthly report.

Although the alliance's total quota in April should increase by 138,000 bpd, this plan is offset by commitments from volunteers who overproduced in previous months and must now compensate with cumulative cuts of 249,000 bpd, the IEA said.

Given March's overproduction exceeding 1 million bpd, only Saudi Arabia and Algeria will be able to increase production in April by a total of 20,000 bpd, it said.

OPEC+'s April 3 decision to increase production from 135,000 bpd to 411,000 bpd starting in May doesn't account for compensation cuts from violators, it said. Their schedules are due to be published on April 15.

Current compliance trends among OPEC+ members suggest the alliance's actual May production increase might reach only 225,000 bpd, IEA analysts said. Only Saudi Arabia can significantly boost production - by 190,000 bpd from current levels, while Algeria, Russia and Oman collectively could add less than 40,000 bpd under the agreement, they said.

The IEA doesn't rule out that OPEC+ may reconsider its policy on increasing production in the near future amid changing economic conditions due to trade wars.