Central Bank of Russia may begin easing monetary policy if inflation slows, inflation expectations fall below 2024 levels - deputy governor

MOSCOW. April 4 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia may move to ease monetary policy if inflation slows and inflation expectations drop below 2024 levels, CBR Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said.

"We need to see that the current pace of price growth is slowing down. Just as important, if not more so, is the decline in inflation expectations," Zabotkin said during the Where is the CBR Looking? podcast.

"Inflation estimates are always skewed upwards compared to the actual [consumer price index data]. What is needed? That the inflation expectations we monitor reverse their trend and sustainably fall below the levels observed in 2024. They have started to decline, and that's good news that they have started, but they have not yet fallen out of the range seen in 2024," Zabotkin said.

In 2024, household inflation expectations ranged between 11% and 13.9%.

In March 2025, household inflation expectations dropped sharply by 0.8 percentage points to 12.9%, while business expectations also continued to decline significantly.

In March, the CBR kept its key rate at 21% per annum. The regulator said at the time that the achieved tightness of monetary conditions creates the necessary prerequisites for returning inflation to target by 2026. "Achieving the inflation target will require a long period of maintaining tight monetary conditions in the economy. The Bank of Russia will continue to assess the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations. If disinflation dynamics do not ensure achieving the inflation target, the Bank of Russia will consider raising the key rate," the CBR said.