Growth momentum in Russia's economy at end of year remains in Jan - Central Bank

MOSCOW. March 11 (Interfax) - Growth momentum in Russia's economy at the end of 2024 remained in January, with a gradual deceleration expected going forward, the Central Bank of Russia's Research and Forecasting Department said in its latest Talking Trends bulletin.

"Growth momentum in Russia's economy at the end of 2024 continued in January, as judged from statistical data, operational indicators, and surveys, though these are often ambiguous and spotty in nature," the CBR said.

"We could expect a smooth cyclical slowdown in growth in Russia's economy going forward owing to credit and the budget reducing contributions to growth in aggregate demand," the bank's analysts said.

"Abrupt wage growth in December due to bonuses, primarily in the minerals extraction and financial sectors, spurred consumer demand and savings," the report says.

"The strengthening of the ruble influenced by favorable seasonal factors and increased expectations of geopolitical de-escalation further improved consumer sentiment," it says.

But "the impact of reverting to fiscal rule parameters in 2025 will be fully manifest in the following months as the expenditure rate returns to the seasonal norm."

"It is also necessary to interpret statistical data that is published carefully: due to the additional calendar day in February of the 2024 leap year, year-on-year growth for February 2025 for a wide range of output and demand indicators will be significantly understated (the reverse leap year effect)," the Central Bank said.