Ruble's current exchange rate of 88 rubles/$1 stronger than Russian Economic Development Ministry expected based on balance of payments - minister
NAYPYIDAW. Feb 24 (Interfax) - The current exchange rate of the ruble at 88 rubles per dollar is stronger than the Russian Economic Development Ministry expected based on the balance of payments, while the ruble's volatility is explained by the destruction of the exchange mechanism and the ministry will prepare an updated forecast in March-April, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov told reporters.
A strong ruble affects exporters differently depending on the industry, he said. In particular, it is a major problem for the coal industry, while for fertilizer producers the impact is less significant.
"If we talk about the exchange rate specifically at 88 rubles per dollar, then it is certainly stronger than the balance we observed and that is currently reflected in our forecasts," Reshetnikov said when asked whether the ruble's strengthening is explained by fundamental factors from the perspective of the balance of payments or is purely psychological in nature.
"Our market has become significantly more volatile since last year after the exchange mechanism was effectively destroyed. We are now operating through over-the-counter contract registration," Reshetnikov said regarding the significant fluctuations in the ruble's exchange rate.
"We will prepare our new estimates in March," he said regarding the ministry's new expectations for the end of the year. The ministry according to its schedule will present its forecast in April.
"In terms of industry impact, the situation varies. For example, for fertilizer producers, the situation is more or less manageable, but for coal producers, this [the ruble's strengthening] is a major problem because the exchange rate coincided with a drop in external prices. Therefore, the situation is developing differently across industries," he said when asked how much this strengthening has already affected exports.
As previously reported, the Economic Development Ministry forecasted in September an average annual exchange rate of 96.5 rubles/$1 in 2025, 100.0 rubles/$1 in 2026, and 103.2 rubles/$1 in 2027.
In September, the ministry projected that by the end of 2025, the dollar exchange rate would be 98.7 rubles/$1 and the euro exchange rate 109.6 rubles/EUR; by the end of 2026, the dollar would be 101.1 rubles/$1 and the euro 112.3 rubles/EUR, and by the end of 2027, the dollar would be 105.0 rubles/$1 and the euro 117.2 rubles/EUR.