Russian grain exports may reach 49.5 mln tonnes in 2024-2025 agricultural year, including 42 mln tonnes of wheat - Rusagrotrans

DUBAI. Feb 18 (Interfax) - Russia may export 49.5 million tonnes of grain (or 52.6 million tonnes including legumes) in the 2024-2025 agricultural year (July 2024 - June 2025), including 42 million tonnes of wheat, according to a forecast presented by the head of the Rusagrotrans analytical center Igor Pavensky at the Grain Market: Russia's Prospects session of Grain Forum Dubai on Tuesday.

According to his data, grain exports for July-February are expected to reach 41.5 million tonnes, compared to 47.8 million tonnes during the same period of the previous season. Wheat exports during this period may total 34.5 million tonnes, down from 36.2 million tonnes in the previous season.

Russia has implemented a wheat export quota of 10.6 million tonnes (until June 30, 2025) from February 15, Pavensky said. According to his estimate, the export potential for this period is 8.1 million tonnes (excluding supplies to the Eurasian Economic Union), but the actual figure may be even lower.

Barley exports for July-February are forecasted to be 4.08 million tonnes, compared to 6.16 million tonnes last year. The forecast for the entire season is 4.1 million tonnes (9 million tonnes), which will be the lowest figure since the 2021-2022 agricultural year (3.5 million tonnes).

Corn exports for July-February are expected to be 2.56 million tonnes (4.79 million tonnes). The forecast for the 2024-2025 season is 2.77 million tonnes (7.34 million tonnes), which is close to the figure from the 2018-2019 agricultural year (2.81 million tonnes).

Grain production in Russia may recover to an average of 132.4 million tonnes in the new 2025-2026 agricultural year, Pavensky said. The range of estimates is 124-140 million tonnes. The wheat harvest is forecasted to be 84.6 million tonnes, within a range of 78.5-90.6 million tonnes. "Conditions for winter crops have significantly improved due to the abnormally warm weather in December and January, but there are growing risks of spring droughts and potential damage from expected frosts in some areas of the European part of Russia," he said.

According to preliminary data from Rosstat, Russia harvested 125 million tonnes of grain in 2024, including 82.4 million tonnes of wheat.