Exporters hope for return of Iran, Turkey as major buyers of Russian wheat - Union of Grain Exporters

MOSCOW. Feb 14 (Interfax) - There is strong hope that Iran will soon resume imports of Russian wheat, OZK Group Deputy General Director and Executive Director of the Union of Grain Exporters Kseniya Bolomatova said at the Where is the Margin 2025 conference in Moscow on Thursday.

Noting that grain exports in the new season (starting July 1, 2025) will exceed the forecast for the current season of 55 million tonnes, Bolomatova said that the main export destinations will remain traditional, with a few exceptions. These exceptions are Iran and Turkey, which have reduced purchases this season but may increase them in the next one, she said.

"Iran has received only 600,000 tonnes of Russian wheat since the beginning of this season [from July 1, 2024, to January 2025 inclusive]," Bolomatova said. "Such a decline is not surprising - we have observed volatility in imports, ranging from zero to an extreme 8 million tonnes. We understand this is due to the protection of their domestic market and a very good domestic harvest. We can be happy for our partners. However, we also understand that they may soon return and resume importing Russian grain. There is strong hope for this," she said.

According to her presentation, Iran's highest wheat purchases for the July-January period were 3.7 million tonnes in the 2021-2022 agricultural year. A year later, purchases fell to 1.6 million tonnes, and in the 2023-2024 agricultural year (July-January), they dropped further to 0.9 million tonnes.

At the same time, Iran remained among the top three buyers of Russian grain for this period, but its total purchases decreased from 3.9 million tonnes to 2.8 million tonnes. The highest volume was recorded in the 2021-2022 agricultural year.

Turkey could also increase its wheat purchases from Russia, she said.

"The situation in Turkey [this season] is unusual. For twenty years, it had been increasing grain imports, including from Russia, and then suddenly imposed a ban [on imports], likely due to its own harvest and some economic difficulties," she said. "Turkey currently has minimal [grain] reserves, at levels comparable to 2015-2016, despite population growth and rising prosperity. Meanwhile, consumption continues to increase. Given this, we believe that next season Turkey will return to our top three or even top two trading partners."

According to her presentation, Turkey has already entered the top three buyers of Russian wheat this season (July-January), but purchases have dropped significantly - to 2 million tonnes from 4.4 million tonnes a year earlier.

Regarding global trends in the grain trade, Bolomatova said that the current season is unusual. European exporters are losing ground, while suppliers from the Southern Hemisphere are strengthening their positions. "This creates a certain amount of pressure, especially as some of our key importers have reduced purchases," she said.

Nevertheless, the market will remain export-driven, as global grain consumption continues to rise and the stock-to-production ratio is at minimal levels, she said. This in turn presents opportunities for Russian exports. "We will definitely have buyers. Moreover, there is a strong demand for our grain; we have a certain humanitarian role to play," she said.