Russian current account deficit $700 mln in Jan 2025 versus $2.9 bln surplus a year earlier - Central Bank estimate
MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) - Russia had a current account deficit of $700 million in January 2025 compared to a deficit of $1.6 billion in December 2024 and a surplus of $2.9 billion in January 2024, the Central Bank said in an estimate of the balance of payments, published on its website.
The trade surplus fell 37.5% to $4.5 billion in January 2025 from $7.2 billion in January 2024. The January 2025 surplus was down 19.6% from December 2024, when there was a surplus of $5.6 billion.
The Central Bank said a deficit of the balance on investment income and balance on services slightly exceeded trade balance surplus, as in the previous month.
Estimate of key Russian balance of payment aggregates in Jan 2025, $ bln:
Jan MoM YoY Current account -0,7 -56,3% Goods 4,5 -19,6% -37,5% Exports 28,5 -8,9% -0,3% Imports 23,9 -7,0% 11,7% Services -3,0 -21,1% -3,2% Exports 2,9 -31,0% -9,4% Imports 6,0 -25,0% -4,8% Balance on primary and secondary income -2,1 -38,2% 75,0% Receivable 2,6 -25,7% -13,3% Payable 4,8 -30,4% 14,3% Net acquisition of financial assets, excluding reserve assets 5,8 81,3% Net incurrence of liabilities 5,4
The aggregate primary and secondary income deficit stabilized at $2.1 billion in January after a seasonal increase of $3.4 billion in December.
Foreign assets excluding reserve assets increased by $5.8 billion in January after falling $7.1 billion the previous month, mainly due to other investments.
At the same time, external liabilities increased by $5.4 billion after falling $2.6 billion in December, mainly due to change in outstanding trade settlements.
Reserve assets decreased by $3.0 billion in January after rising $4.9 billion the previous month.
The Central Bank updated its estimates of key balance of payments indicators for 2024 in connection with the receipt of additional reporting data as of February 13.
The 2024 the current account surplus estimate in 2024 remained virtually unchanged $53.5 billion against $53.8 billion according to the preliminary estimate. The trade surplus estimate was unchanged, the services deficit was lowered to $38.1 billion from $38.3 billion and the primary and secondary incomes deficit was increased to $31.0 from $30.6 billion.
The Central Bank's baseline scenario, last updated in October and to be updated again on February 14, assumes that if Brent crude traded at $80 per barrel there would have been a current account surplus of $61 billion, visible trade surplus of $133 billion, deficit in services trade of $38 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit of $34 billion in 2024.
The 2025 scenario, which also assumes Brent trades at $80, sees a current account surplus of $51 billion, visible trade surplus of $120 billion, deficit in services trade of $38 billion and primary and secondary incomes deficit of $31 billion.