Russian GDP growth quickened to 3.8% in Q4 from 3.1% in Q3 - Econ Ministry

MOSCOW. Feb 7 (Interfax) - Russian GDP grew an estimated 4.5% year-on-year in December compared with 3.6% growth in November and 3.2% in October, the Economic Development Ministry said in a report on the current situation in the economy.

The ministry estimated GDP grew 3.8% year-on-year in Q4 2024 after rising 3.1% in Q3, 4.1% in Q4 and 5.4% in Q1.

The State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a first estimate on Friday that GDP grew 4.1% in 2024, but it did not give an estimate Q4. The 2024 growth was higher than the Economic Development Ministry's 3.9% estimate, the 3.5%-4.0% forecast by the Central Bank of Russia and the 3.9% that analysts predicted in a consensus forecast for Interfax at the end of December.

"According Rosstat's first estimate, GDP grew 4.1% in 2024, which is level with the revised estimate for 2023 (third estimate - 4.1%). Nominal GDP for 2024 was 200.0 trillion rubles. According to the Economic Development Ministry's estimate, GDP grew 4.5% year-on-year in December after rising 3.6% a month earlier. Seasonally adjusted growth was 0.9% in December and 0.0% [zero] in November," the ministry said.

The Central Bank of Russia is forecasting 0.5%-1.5% GDP growth for 2025. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the end of December that the government was expecting 2.0-2.5% growth this year. The analysts are forecasting 1.5% growth.