Roshydromet obtains detailed climate forecast for Russia until end of 21st century thanks to monitoring system
MOSCOW. Feb 5 (Interfax) - The Unified National System for Monitoring Climate-Active Substances has enabled the development of a detailed scenario-based climate change forecast for the entire territory of Russia until the end of the 21st century, including specific projections for 35 Russian cities with populations exceeding half a million, Igor Shumakov, the head of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) said during a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
The forecast includes not only average climate change values but also extreme events such as heatwaves, floods and heavy rainfall, Shumakov said.
The project to create the Unified National System for Monitoring Climate-Active Substances has been underway since late 2022. It involves studying and modeling climate processes at two levels - the global level (Earth system model) and the regional (country-level).
A global climate model is essential for generating independent domestic forecasts of the human impact on the global climate until the end of the 21st century. The results are used in international climate negotiations. The regional forecasting system, with a high spatial resolution of 25 km across the country, allows for the development of scenario-based forecasts to plan climate adaptation measures.
"The global and regional systems are used together. The global model provides data at regional boundaries, which are then refined by the regional system within each area. This enables Roshydromet to look a century ahead and provide relevant information to industries and regions for climate adaptation planning," Shumakov said.
He also spoke about other aspects of implementing this major state-level innovative project. The instrumental background monitoring system for permafrost now includes 78 observation points out of the planned 140, he said. Work has begun on the digitalization of the emissions and greenhouse gas absorption registry. Calculation methodologies have been improved.
