IMF raises forecast for growth in Russia's GDP by 0.1 pp in 2025, global estimate also positive thanks to U.S
MOSCOW. Jan 17 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its growth forecast for Russia's GDP in 2025 to 1.4% from 1.3% previously, and the growth estimate for 2024 to 3.8% from 3.6%, the IMF said in its January report on the global economy, WEO Update: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain, published on Friday.
The IMF also raised its global economic growth estimate by 0.1 percentage points to 3.3% for the current year from 3.2% previously, against the same 3.2% for 2024 and 3.3% for 2023. About three months have passed since the previous publication. In October 2024, the IMF lowered the forecast for both global and Russian GDP by 0.1 pp and 0.2 pp, respectively.
Despite the slight increase, the latest IMF estimate for Russia's GDP in 2025 is still significantly lower than the Economic Development Ministry's baseline forecast of 2.5% growth and the growth estimate of 2.0-2.5% made by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the end of December. However, it falls within the range of the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) current forecast of 0.5-1.5%. Commenting on the IMF's estimates for 2025 last October, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said that they were overly pessimistic and did not account for the measures taken by the Russian authorities.
The IMF expects Russian GDP growth to slow to 1.2% in 2026, but that global GDP growth will remain at 3.3%.
The IMF now estimates Russia's economy grew by 3.8% in 2024, whereas in October it forecast growth of 3.6%. The Economic Development Ministry's and CBR's forecasts for 2024 are 3.9% and 3.5-4.0%, respectively.
The IMF left its estimate for global economic growth in 2024 unchanged at 3.2%.
The Fund also lowered its forecast for global inflation in 2025 by 0.1 pp to 4.2% and expects the figure to slow to 3.5% in 2026. It raised the 2025 inflation forecast for developed countries to 2.1%, but lowered it for emerging markets and developing countries by 0.3 pp to 5.6%. The figures are expected to slow to 2% and 4.5%, respectively, in 2026.
The IMF lowered its growth forecast for global trade in 2025 by 0.2 pp to 3.2% and expects growth to measure 3.3% in 2026.
The Fund now expects a steeper drop in the average oil price in 2025 of 11.7% to $69.76 per barrel (arithmetic average of three benchmark crudes: Brent, WTI and Dubai), in part due to weakening demand in China, whereas before it projected the price would fall 10.4% to $72.84. The price will drop another 2.6% to $67.96 in 2026, it expects.
Country forecasts
The economic growth forecast for emerging markets and developing countries was left unchanged at 4.2% for 2025 and is 4.3% for 2026. The growth forecast for developed countries was raised by 0.1 pp to 1.9% for 2025 and is 1.8% for 2026.
The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.6% this year rather than the previously forecast 4.5%, with growth slowing slightly to 4.5% in 2026. India's GDP is still expected to expand by 6.5% this year, with growth staying at this level in 2026. The growth forecast the Brazilian economy is unchanged at 2.2% for 2025 and is the same for 2026.
The IMF significantly raised its growth forecast for the U.S. economy in 2025, by 0.5 pp to 2.7%, after raising it to 2.2% from 1.9% in October. It is this factor that bolstered the global forecast amid worse expectations for a number of other major developed economies, the IMF said in the report. U.S. growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2026.
The IMF further reduced its economic growth forecast for Eurozone countries this year, by 0.2 pp to 1%, and expects growth of 1.4% next year.
The Fund now expects the German economy to grow by only 0.3% this year, while in October it forecast growth of 0.8% and even earlier it expected 1.3%. It estimated Germany's GDP expanded by 0.2% in 2024, although in October it expected zero growth. Germany's growth is expected to accelerate to 1.1% in 2026.
The IMF raised its 2025 growth forecast for the United Kingdom by 0.1 pp to 1.6% and Spain by 0.2 pp to 2.3%, but lowered it by 0.3 pp to 0.8% for France and 0.1 pp to 0.7% or Italy. These countries are expected to see growth of, respectively, 1.5%, 1.8%, 1.1% and 0.9% in 2026.
The GDP growth forecast for Japan remains unchanged at 1.1% for this year, with growth expected to slow to 0.8% in 2026.