Russian pork association sees exports growing to 320,000-350,000 tonnes in 2025

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Russian pork association sees exports growing to 320,000-350,000 tonnes in 2025

MOSCOW. Dec 20 (Interfax) - Russia could increase pork exports to 320,000-350,000 tonnes in 2025, the CEO of the National Union of Pork Producers, Yury Kovalev forecast.

A more precise forecast will depend on whether China expands the list of Russian suppliers or if it will continue to include only three companies.

"Without the expansion of the list, exports could reach 320,000-330,000 tonnes, with the opening of access for new companies, about 350,000 tonnes," Kovalev said in the Agroexport Center's digest.

"Therefore, if new Russian producers do not receive access in 2025, we forecast that exports to China will total 60,000-70,000 tonnes. But if another five or six companies are certified at the beginning of next year, one can hope for an increase in volume to 100,000 tonnes," Kovalev said.

He said China is important because it drove the growth of exports this year. Russian exports of pork products, including meat, by-products, pork fat and live pigs for slaughter, grew by 28% to over 280,000 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2024. "Thus, the amount has already exceeded all exports in 2023," Kovalev said.

Shipments to markets that were open before 2024 rose 11%, as Russia already has a substantial market share there. In Belarus, for example, this is 100% and in Vietnam about 50%.

"The Chinese market, which opened to Russian suppliers in February, accounted for most of the growth. Already in July Russia increased its share of Chinese pork imports to more than 5%, which made it possible to become one of the five largest suppliers of this meat to China for the first time. By the start of December, almost 38,000 tonnes of pork had been shipped to China, as a result of which China became one of the top three buyers of Russian pork in the first 11 months of 2024," Kovalev said.

The union expects exports to China to reach almost 45,000 tonnes for the year, and overall Russian pork exports to top 300,000 tonnes. Russia exported 222,000 tonnes of pork products in 2023.