Economic Development Ministry to clarify 2025 inflation forecast by April, trajectory heading above projected 4.5% - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Dec 16 (Interfax) - Russia's inflation is on a trajectory exceeding the 4.5% rate forecast by the Economic Development Ministry for 2025; its expectations will be clarified by March-April, Minister Maksim Reshetnikov told Interfax on the sidelines of the 21st United Russia party congress on Saturday.

"We will definitely clarify them for it is clear that we are now going above the trajectory [of the current 4.5% rate forecast for 2025]," Reshetnikov said, when asked about the ministry's expectations of an inflation rate next year.

"Probably, we will do it closer to March-April, just as we will be reassessing the [exchange] rate and revising the forecast. We will obtain statistics in January, we'll look at them and clarify," he said.

"First of all, this is the latest package of sanctions, and therefore a reset of mechanisms [for export currencies coming into Russia], plus, there were some purchases to repay external debts of certain companies," Reshetnikov said, commenting on the causes for ruble's high volatility.

"The market is very small, so any more or less big transaction would cause such volatility," he said.

According to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), prices in Russia rose by 8.76% by December 9 since the beginning of this year, surpassing the Central Bank's October forecast of 8%-8.5% for 2024 and the Economic Development Ministry's September forecast (at 7.3%).

Formally, the government cannot now revise its 2024 forecast which is laid down in the next year budget. At any rate, social payouts will be indexed based on an actual, not predicted, inflation rate.

The ministry's September forecast for inflation in 2025 stood at 4.5%; in October, the Central Bank forecast inflation in 2025 at 4.5%-5%.

A prognosis-consensus among economists polled by Interfax in early December put the 2025 inflation rate at 6.3%.