Russia may maintain 2024 agricultural exports at 2023 level despite fall in prices - Agroexport

MOSCOW. Dec 13 (Interfax) - Revenue from Russian agricultural exports in 2024 may remain at last year's level despite a fall in global market prices, with export volumes in physical terms expected to grow 10%, head of the Agriculture Ministry's Agroexport Center Dmitry Krasnov said.

"This year, we had a slight decrease in the value of exports. But I believe that this decline will be overcome by the end of 2024 and we will remain at last year's level. Exports will grow 10% in physical terms," Krasnov said at the Russian Agroexport 2024-2025 strategic session.

Russia exported 103 million tonnes of agricultural products worth $43.5 billion in 2023.

February and March saw prices for wheat and sunflower oil fall to their lowest, with wheat prices dropping to their lowest level since August 2020, Krasnov said. This largely shaped the export situation and significantly affected export revenues, he said.

The export of finished products helps overcome pricing lags, he said. "We see significant potential in further developing exports of meat, dairy and processed products, which have demonstrated exceptional growth this year," he said. According to Krasnov's presentation, as of December 8 meat product exports had reached $1.5 billion, up 20% year-on-year. Poultry meat shipments grew 13%, pork 38% and beef 12%. Exports increased 23% in physical terms, reaching 658,000 tonnes.

The growth in poultry exports was mainly driven by Saudi Arabia, which increased purchases by $81 million, and the UAE, up by $10 million. Pork exports rose due to demand from China, up by $101 million, and Belarus, up $22 million, while beef exports were supported by Saudi Arabia, up by $14 million, and Iran, up by $9 million. Beef exports grew due to demand in Gulf countries, Krasnov said. "Today, there isn't a single Gulf nation that doesn't receive Russian meat products," he said.

There has been a 20% increase in the value of dairy exports compared to last year, he said. Cheese and curd exports rose 25%, milk and cream 40% and powdered milk 32%. Dairy exports to China rose 60%. "This year, countries like Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have appeared on the map of our dairy exports," he said.

According to the presentation, Russia had exported dairy products worth $374 million as of December 8, compared to $312 million last year. In physical terms, exports reached 186,000 tonnes compared to 171,000 tonnes.

Exports of processed product grew 5.2% to $4.3 billion and 1.9% to 7.7 million tonnes. The value of pasta exports increased 1.5-fold, ice cream 8% and wheat flour 7%. "I'd especially like to highlight the 22% growth in exports of processed products to China," Krasnov said.

"As a result, the structure of exports has shifted. The share of basic raw materials decreased 1 percentage point to 79% of the total volume, while the share of finished products, meat and dairy rose to 21%. A single percentage point is not so small; in monetary terms, that's over $400 million," he said.

According to the presentation, grain exports this year as of December 8 amounted to $15 billion compared to $14.8 billion a year earlier, oil and fat products stood at $7.78 billion versus $7.76 billion, and fish and seafood totaled $4.4 billion versus $5 billion. Ninety percent of exports were directed to friendly countries.