CBR analysts see Russian economy trending toward smooth, gradual slowdown

MOSCOW. Dec 11 (Interfax) - The Russian economy is on track to a gradual slowdown, with growth having become more segmented by sector, the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) research and forecasting department said in its bulletin on the latest trends.

"Judging by the latest and survey indicators, a trend has formed in the Russian economy toward a gradual slowdown of growth, without sharp ups and downs. Real wages are still growing fast, helping to support consumer demand, although their growth has slowed somewhat," the report said.

Annual growth of economic activity slowed to 3.1% in the third quarter of 2024 from 4.1% in the second quarter.

"This means that quarterly growth [seasonally adjusted] slowed to 0.4% in the third quarter from 0.6% in the second quarter, which is what immediate statistics indicated. Judging by the latest data for October-November, the trend toward a gradual slowdown of activity continued in the fourth quarter," the report said.

The report also said that growth in the Russian economy has "become more segmented," as "[g]rowth in the consumer sector, wholesale trade and manufacturing sectors combined with a weak dynamic in extractive sectors, transport and agriculture."

"Corporate lending continued to grow rapidly right up to October, inclusive, although the general credit momentum in the economy continued to slow. According to the latest data, the rate of corporate lending growth was far more moderate in November," the report said.

CBR analysts attribute the upward trend in manufacturing to sectors "oriented toward meeting domestic demand: investment, state and consumer."