Russia may see wheat exports fall to 2.5-3 mln tonnes in Jan - Rusagrotrans

MOSCOW. Dec 9 (Interfax) - Russian wheat exports are estimated at 3.4-3.5 million tonnes in December compared to 4.6 million tonnes in November, Rusagrotrans's analytical center said.

"They [exports] could fall to 2.5-3 million tonnes in January," the center told Interfax.

"Despite the growth in export prices at ports and a simultaneous fall in domestic prices in the south, the significant increase in the duty to 4,871.50 rubles per tonne from December 11 (up 1,175 rubles compared to last week) has resulted in export profitability turning sharply negative - to 1,500 rubles per tonne. This could ultimately lead to a fall in the amount of exports from Russia and to significant growth in export quotas at ports," the center said.

Export offer prices for Russian wheat (12.5% protein) with delivery in December grew $2 over the week to $228 per tonne (FOB), the center said. The price of French wheat rose $5 to $240 per tonne, $4 to $254 per tonne for German wheat and $4 to $429 per tonne for American wheat.

Prices for wheat (grade 4, 12.5% protein) at Russia's deep-water ports dropped 800 rubles to 17,300-17,500 rubles per tonne excluding VAT due to the sharp increase in export duties and the strengthening of the ruble. Prices fell 300 rubles to 16,100 rubles per tonne at shallow ports.

The domestic market for wheat contracted in the south, strengthened slightly in central regions and remained stable in the Volga region. In the south, prices for wheat (grade 4, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator) fell 450 rubles to 15,500-16,300 rubles per tonne. In central Russia, prices rose 150 rubles to 15,500-16,000 rubles and held steady at 15,000-15,500 rubles per tonne in the Volga region.

In Siberia, purchase prices for grade 3 wheat ranged from 10,500 to 16,000 rubles per tonne (EXW elevator, excluding VAT), with an average increase of 100 rubles compared to the previous week. Prices for grade 4 wheat stood at 10,500-11,500 rubles per tonne.