Ukrainian industrial enterprises' business expectations downgrade in Nov - State Statistics Service

MOSCOW. Dec 4 (Interfax) - The indicator of business confidence in the industry and in the processing industry in Ukraine in November dropped 1.1 p.p. compared to October 2024 to minus 9.1%, and minus 9.8%, respectively, Ukrainian media reported, citing the State Statistics Service.

In turn, the indicator of business climate in the industry did not change compared to September, amounting to 0.3%, while it fell 0.1 p.p. in the processing industry to 0.2%.

As reported, the indicator of business confidence in the industry this year began to gradually improve in January, increasing 2.6 p.p. against December 2023 to minus 11% (in the processing industry by 3.2% to minus 11.8%), and stood at minus 5.2% as compared with this May (in the processing industry minus 2.3%). Then it began to decline gradually.

In particular, the assessment of the current volume of orders for the production of goods (demand) in the industry totaled minus 38% and minus 40% (against minus 40% in September). At the same time, only 2% of the surveyed industrial enterprises (2% in the processing industry) find the current demand above the normal level, while 60% estimate it as sufficient (59%) and 38% below the normal level (39%).

In turn, the November expectations regarding the volume of production in the next three months (November 2024-January 2025) also declined, as they went down to +1% in the industrial sector from +6% in October 2024, and to minus 2% from +2% in the processing industry.

At the same time, 23% of the surveyed enterprises are expecting growth in production volumes in the next three months (27% in October), and 22% are expecting a decline (21%). In the processing industry, accordingly, 20% are expecting growth (compared to 24%), while 22% (22%) are anticipating a drop.

The estimation of the current volume of stocks of finished goods in the industry in November did not change compared to October, reaching minus 10%, while in the processing industry it decreased 1 p.p. to minus 13%, the service said.

At the same time, as a month earlier, only 3% of enterprises that have been polled said that the stocks of finished products are above the normal level, while 12% below the normal level, 59% sufficient for the season and 26% said they have no stocks (in the processing industry, respectively, 3%, 14%, 68% and 15%)

At the same time, the estimate of production for the previous three months in the industry amounted to minus 4%, in the processing industry minus 2%, while they totaled minus 4% each a month earlier.

At the same time, 23% of industrial enterprises noted the rising demand in August-October, while 22% reported a fall, and in the processing industry, respectively, 22% in each of these trends.

At the same time, the assessment of the current volume of export demand in the industry and processing improved 1 p.p., amounting to minus 27% and minus 33%, respectively.

Of the surveyed industrial enterprises, none of them considers the current export demand to be above the normal level, while 27% said it is below the normal level, 28% said it is sufficient, and 45% said they have no exports, (in the processing sector, respectively, 0%, 33%, 35% and 32%)

The enterprises are provided with orders on average for four months as in previous months, it said.

As many as 38% (37% in October) of the surveyed industrial enterprises are expecting the growth of selling prices for products in the next three months, while 2% (2%) are expecting a downward trend, while the remaining 60% said that they will not change, and in the processing industry, respectively, 41% (35% in October), 2% and 57%.

Between November 2024 and January 2025, 9% of surveyed industrial companies are anticipating a decline in the number of employees, while 18% are expecting an increase (10% and 18% in October, respectively), and in the processing industry, 8% and 19%, respectively.

Of the 1109 industrial enterprises surveyed by the State Statistics Service in November, 57 were mining companies, 881 were processing companies, 102 were energy suppliers, and 69 were water supply, sewerage, and waste management companies.