Russia's anthropogenic emissions 34% lower when calculated with sovereign coefficients compared to international ones
MOSCOW. Nov 5 (Interfax) - Developing and using national coefficients for translating economic and ecosystem indicators into emissions has clarified the level of Russia's net greenhouse gas emissions, showing them to be 34% lower than previously thought, Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for Economic Forecasting Alexander Shirov said.
"This is a significant amount. If we convert this into the investments that would have been necessary to reduce this volume of emissions - 560 million tonnes in CO2 equivalent [the identified 34% difference] - these figures amount to several trillion rubles. This is the burden that could have been imposed on the Russian economy and business to achieve the targets we set for ourselves [carbon neutrality by 2060]," Shirov said at a press conference on the outcomes of the first phase of the major Unified National System for Monitoring Climate-Active Substances state-level innovative project.
This adjustment translates to savings on decarbonization, estimated in 2021 prices, of 3 trillion rubles for Russia's budget and 4.5 trillion rubles for the entire Russian economy, Shirov said in a presentation. These savings arise from using less capital-intensive methods of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for reducing emissions through absorption by ecosystems.
It was previously reported that Russia would present its inventory of anthropogenic emissions for 2022 at the upcoming UN Climate Conference (COP29). The inventory was compiled using sovereign methodology.
During the project, 22 coefficients for calculating annual anthropogenic emissions in Russia, or 28% of the total, were refined, Shirov said in his presentation. Updated data showed that emissions from fuel combustion, waste, and industrial production were lower than previously calculated, while the capacity of Russia's ecosystem for absorption was significantly higher.
"Our forest ecosystems' capacity to absorb greenhouse gases was greatly underestimated [when calculated using the international methodology]. We found that our forests were capable of absorbing around 1,156.9 megatons of CO2 equivalent [annually from 2002-2023]. On average, our forests could absorb about 440 megatons more than previously estimated," said Natalia Lukina, Director of the Center for Forest Ecology and Productivity.
By 2030, when the monitoring network is fully deployed, substantial updates in estimates of carbon absorption by forests and other terrestrial ecosystems, including soil, are expected, Lukina said in her presentation.
The inventory of anthropogenic emissions from sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases not regulated by the Montreal Protocol is an official document submitted by a country to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. It includes data on the greenhouse gas balance on which further national measures for preventing global warming are based. The inventory is prepared with a two-year lag. Data for 2022 will be submitted in 2024.
The UN Climate Change Conference will be held in Baku from November 11 to 22.