Main internal risks for Russia's macroeconomic forecast are labor market, tight monetary policy - Reshetnikov

MOSCOW. Oct 14 (Interfax) - A possible deceleration in the global economy, internal risks associated with the labor market, and a tight monetary policy are the main external risks for the medium-term socio-economic forecast for Russia, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said when presenting the macro forecast during a meeting of the State Duma committee on budget and taxes.

"A few words about the risks for the forecast. They are related to external conditions, namely a slowdown in the global economy, a reduction in global demand for Russian export goods, and a further increase in sanctions pressure," Reshetnikov said.

"There are also internal risks. They are first of all associated with insufficient growth rates in domestic production if it is not possible to level out bottlenecks in the labor, capital and technology markets, as well as an untimely easing of the tight monetary policy," Reshetnikov said

"These risks are reflected in the conservative forecast scenario," Reshetnikov said.

He said GDP growth of 3.9% was expected in 2024, and 13% in aggregate for 2024-2027.

"Russia's GDP in nominal terms will amount to about 196 trillion rubles this year - this is almost twice what it was in 2020. Nominal GDP will reach 250 trillion rubles in 2027," he said.

Reshetnikov also said that "inflation has begun to slow after peaking in early July." "We expect that the trend will continue in 2025, and in 2026 the indicator will reach the Bank of Russia's target level [4.0%]," Reshetnikov said.

The Econ Ministry's medium-term baseline forecast envisages GDP growth of 3.9% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, 2.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.

Inflation should be 7.3% in 2024, 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.