U.S. Department of Agriculture upgrades Ukrainian wheat export forecast by 1 mln tonnes, lowers corn export forecast by 1 mln tonnes

MOSCOW. Oct 14 (Interfax) - The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its outlook for wheat exports from Ukraine by 1 million tonnes to 16.0 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, from July 2024 to June 2025).

This revision was made due to a higher estimate of wheat harvest from 22.3 million tonnes to 22.9 million tonnes, as well as a lower estimate of domestic consumption from 7.0 million tonnes to 6.7 million tonnes and carryover stocks from 1.09 million tonnes to 0.99 million tonnes, Ukrainian media reported, citing the October USDA report.

At the same time, the outlook for corn exports from Ukraine has been downgraded by 1 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes in this marketing year due to a lower crop estimate by 1 million tonnes to 26.2 million tonnes.

Expectations for exports of other grain crops have been kept at the level of around 2.5 million tonnes.

USDA said that the wheat harvest in Ukraine totaled 23.0 million tonnes and exports reached 18.58 million tonnes last MY, while that of corn stood at 32.5 million tonnes and 29.6 million tonnes, respectively.

USDA projects the global wheat production at 794.08 million tonnes in the 2024-2025 season, down 2.8 million tonnes compared to the September forecast, while global exports are forecast at 215.82 million tonnes, down 0.69 million tonnes from the September outlook.

The estimate of the global corn production was downgraded to 1,217.19 billion tonnes, down 1.38 million tonnes compared to the September forecast, and its global exports to 190.50 million tonnes, down 0.87 million tonnes compared to the September outlook.