Russian govt cuts estimate for oil output to 521.3 mln tonnes in 2024, retains exports at 240 mln tonnes of oil, 131.6 mln tonnes of petroleum products; oil forecast envisages decline going forward

MOSCOW. Sept 30 (Interfax) - The Russian government has cut its latest estimate for domestic oil output to 521.3 million tonnes in 2024 from 523 million tonnes in the April version of the macro forecast, and submitted the corresponding figures on Monday to the State Duma in its forecast for the country's socio-economic development in 2025-2027, along with the budget package.

The government has also reduced the indicators for the three-year production forecasts from 530 million tonnes in 2025 to 518.6 million tonnes, from 540 million tonnes in 2026 to 525.2 million tonnes, and from 553.1 million tonnes in 2027 to 532 million tonnes.

The government has retained its estimate for oil exports at 240 million tonnes in 2024 versus the 238 million tonnes exported in 2023, as in the main parameters approved in its April macroeconomic forecast for 2024-2027.

According to the latest baseline scenario, oil exports should total 233.5 million tonnes in 2025 instead of 247 million tonnes, 238 million tonnes in 2026 instead of 257 million tonnes, and 242 million tonnes in 2027 instead of 269.8 million tonnes in the April version. According to the conservative scenario, the government projects exports at 230 million tonnes in 2025 instead of 237 million tonnes, 233 million tonnes in 2026 instead of 245 million tonnes, and 235 million tonnes in 2027 instead of 249.9 million tonnes in the April version.

The government in the latest macro forecast retains exports of petroleum products at the same level of 131.6 million tonnes in 2024 versus 131.3 million tonnes in the previous macro forecast. The outlook for exports in subsequent years has increased to 133.6 million tonnes in 2025, to 134 million tonnes in 2026, and to 135.7 million in 2027 from the previous forecast of 131.1 million tonnes in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively.