Inflation in Russia exceeds outlook at 0.20% in Aug, annual rate slows to 9.05%, slows slightly below 9% as on Sept 9

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) - Inflation in Russia slowed to 0.20% in August after 1.14% in July - there was indexation of housing and communal services tariffs in July - 0.64% in June, 0.74% in May, 0.50% in April, 0.39% in March, 0.68% in February, and 0.86% in January, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) reported on Wednesday.

The slowdown in inflation in August was expected and is explained by the seasonal decline in the price of fruit and vegetables.

Inflation exceeded analysts' expectations, with the consensus forecast among economists surveyed by Interfax for the month having been 0.14%.

In January-August 2024, prices increased 5.27%. In August 2023, inflation was 0.28%, and it was 3.70% in January-August 2023.

Annual inflation slowed in August to 9.05% from 9.13% at the end of July after 8.59% at the end of June, 8.30% at the end of May, 7.84% at the end of April, 7.72% at the end of March, 7.69% at the end of February, 7.44% at the end of January, and 7.42% at the end of December 2023.

The core consumer price index, excluding changes in prices for individual goods influenced by factors of an administrative and seasonal nature, totaled 100.60% in August 2024 versus 100.40% in July 2024. The core price index decreased to 108.44% in annual terms from 108.60% in July.

Food products fell 0.01% and rose 9.72% in annual terms. Fruit and vegetables decreased 3.96% and increased 19.29% in annual terms.

Non-food products rose 0.60% and increased 6.09% in annual terms. In August, services increased an average of 0.01%, and in annual terms, they increased 11.73%.

Services increased an average of 0.01%, and in annual terms, they increased 11.73%.

Certain types of fruit and vegetables decreased, namely grapes - 17.9%, beets - 13.5%, carrots - 12.3%, potatoes - 9.2%, bananas - 6.6%, tomatoes - 6.0%, onions - 3.9%, apples - 3.0%, pears - 2.0%. Oranges increased 10.7%, and cabbage - 2.5%.

Butter and cocoa increased 2.9%, salmon caviar - 2.3%, olive oil, whole sterilized drinking milk - 1.7%, rye bread - 1.6%, flour - 1.4%, pork - 1.2%, and coffee - 1.1%.

Chicken eggs decreased 1.8%, chicken meat and oatmeal and pearl barley - 0.5%, and semolina and sugar - 0.4%.

Gas motor fuel increased 10.8%, motor gasoline - 1.2%, and diesel fuel - 0.5%.

Among passenger transport services, prices and tariffs decreased in August, namely for travel on long-distance trains - 16.4%, and for economy class air travel - 13.0%.

Rosstat simultaneously published data on weekly price dynamics from September 3 to 9 on Wednesday.

Inflation from September 3 to September 9 was 0.09% after deflation of 0.02% from August 27 to September 2, then a weekly price decline was recorded for the first time since February 2023, but was largely due to an 8.8% drop in airfare prices, price growth of 0.03% from August 20 to 26, 0.04% from August 13 to 19, and 0.05% from August 6 to 12.

Since the beginning of the month, inflation as on September 9 was 0.08%; since the beginning of the year as on September 9 it was 5.35%.

From the data for September 9 of this year and last year, it follows that on September 9, annual inflation slowed to 8.97% from 9.05% at the end of August, if calculated from weekly dynamics - this is the methodology followed by the Central Bank - and slowed to 8.85% if calculated from average daily data for the whole of September 2023 - the Economic Development Ministry has switched to this calculation methodology. The discrepancy in annual inflation estimates based on different methodologies is explained by growth in September 2023 that was uneven and accelerated in the second half of the month.

Fruit and vegetables decreased 1.7% in the week from September 3 to September 9, and in the week from August 27 to September 2, they also decreased 1.7%, including cabbage - 5.6%, carrots - 3.8%, potatoes - 3.2%, beets - 2.9%, apples - 2.3%, onions - 2.0%. Cucumbers increased 1.3%.

From September 3 to September 9, sour cream increased 1.1%, pasteurized milk and butter - 1.0%, sterilized milk - 0.8%, cottage cheese - 0.7%, hard, and semi-hard and soft cheeses - 0.4%.

Granulated sugar decreased 0.6%, margarine - 0.4%, and buckwheat - 0.3%.

Motor gasoline increased 0.4% over the week and 0.2% the week before.

Economy class flights from September 3 to September 9 decreased 0.2%, and from August 27 to September 2 fell 8.8%.