Russia's electricity exports estimated at 10.6-12.2 bln kWh annually up to 2042 - system operator

MOSCOW. Aug 21 (Interfax) - Russia's electricity exports should total around 12.2 billion kWh in 2025-2030 and then decline about 10.6 billion kWh in 2031-2042, the System Operator said in supporting materials for the draft general plan for replacing electric power facilities up to 2042.

The System Operator has provided the estimate based on data from PJSC Inter RAO , which is Russia's sole operator for electricity exports and imports, according to the document.

The forecast indicates that Inter RAO should maintain traditional electricity supply directions up to 2042, except for Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania, to which supplies ceased in 2022.

China at 4.5 billion kWh per year and Kazakhstan at 3.15-4.7 billion kWh per year should remain the principal electricity export directions. Mongolia should receive electricity exports of 0.7-1 billion kWh per year, and Georgia, South Ossetia, and Azerbaijan should also be recipients.

Inter RAO exported electricity totaling 3.5 billion kWh in the first half of 2024, predominately to Kazakhstan at 1.6 billion kWh, Mongolia at 0.6 billion kWh, and China at 0.5 billion kWh.

In August 2023, the Energy Ministry reported a power flow limit of 100-200 MW to China via the Amursk-Heihe transmission line amid a shortage in the Eastern energy system. Inter RAO confirmed the reduction in exports from 600 MW to 100-200 MW via the transmission line. Deliveries via the 110-220 kV transmission line continued as planned. Inter RAO management board member Alexandra Panina at the time told journalists that there would be an estimated 75% year-on-year reduction in deliveries to China in January-February 2024.

Russia exported electricity totaling 10.7 billion kWh in 2023 versus 13.6 billion kWh in 2022. Inter RAO is still hoping to maintain exports in 2024 at the 2023 level, Panina told journalists in January.