Analysts again raise forecasts for key rate, inflation, Russia's GDP - Central Bank survey

MOSCOW. July 17 (Interfax) - Analysts have once again raised their respective forecasts regarding the average key rate to 16.8% for 2024 from the previous 15.9% in May, to 15% for 2025 from 12.4% previously, and to 10.6% for 2026 from 9.4% previously, according to the monthly survey of the Central Bank of Russia.

The analysts have forecast an average key rate of 8% for 2027.

The analysts' estimate for the neutral key rate has remained at 7.5%.

The CBR's survey took place on July 12-16, 2024.

The forecast for growth in Russia's 2024 GDP has increased to 3.2% from 2.9%, with the analysts raising their respective expectations for inflation to 6.5% this year from 5.5% previously.

The forecast for growth in GDP has remained at 1.7% for 2025, though has risen to 1.7% for 2026 from 1.6% previously.

The forecast for inflation has increased to 4.5% for next year from 4.2% previously, and it is unchanged at 4.0% for 2026.

The survey results are the median of forecasts from 31 economists from various organizations, the CBR said. If a respondent gave his expectations as an interval, then the middle of the interval was accounted for in the calculation.

The analysts forecast the annual dollar exchange rate to average 90.10 rubles/$1 in 2024 versus 92.30 rubles/$1 in May's outlook; 95 rubles/$1 in 2025 against 96.20 rubles/$1 previously; and 97.20 rubles/$1 in 2026 versus 98.30 rubles/$1 previously. The annual dollar exchange rate should average 98.90 rubles/$ in 2027.