Russia boosts grain exports to 68.4 mln tonnes in 2023-24 agro season, 55.9 mln tonnes of wheat - analysts

MOSCOW. July 2 (Interfax) - Russia exported 68.4 million tonnes of grain in the recent agricultural season from July 2023 to June 2024, specifically 55.9 million tonnes of wheat, according to the Russian Grain Union's monitoring.

"These are preliminary results. Our estimates indicate that 68.4 million tonnes of the main types of grain were exported during the season versus the grain union's forecast of 67 million tonnes. Wheat exports totaled 55.9 million tonnes against our expectations of 55 million tonnes," Yelena Tyurina, director of the Russian Grain Union's analytical department, told Interfax.

Grain exports totaled 60 million tonnes, including 47 million tonnes of wheat, in the 2022-2023 agricultural season.

Tyurina said that barley exports rose to a record 6.9 million tonnes against around 5 million tonnes last season. Corn shipments increased to 5.3 million tonnes versus 4.3 million tonnes, respectively.

Tyurina also said that exports decreased 6.7% to 5.053 million tonnes in June. Meantime, wheat exports totaled 4.342 million tonnes, in line with June 2023, though barley exports dropped 26% to 385,000 tonnes and corn fell 41% to 325,000 tonnes.

Egypt was the main buyer of wheat in June. "Following a drop in shipments to this country, as observed from December to April, in June, they exceeded the level of June 2023 by 9.3% and totaled just over 1 million tonnes. In June last year, it was 916,000 tonnes," Tyurina said. Turkey placed second, though exports to the country, which had been declining throughout the season, fell 60% to 383,000 tonnes. Meantime, exports to Saudi Arabia doubled to 361,000 tonnes.

Exports to Algeria rose sharply to 345,000 tonnes from 112,500 tonnes in June last year. The main buyers also included Yemen, which nearly doubled purchases to 144,000 tonnes; Mozambique, which boosted purchases nearly 10-fold to 104,000 tonnes; and Nigeria, which increased purchases 2.7-fold to 100,000 tonnes.

"Saudi Arabia is a traditional leader in purchases of Russian barley, where 162,000 tonnes were shipped in June. However, this was down 12% from the previous year," Tyurina said. Iran also slashed purchases 55% to 54,500 tonnes. Russia last month also exported barley to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Libya, and Oman, where there were no shipments the previous year.

"Iran has been the leader among buyers of Russian corn for several months in a row, though exports decreased 16% year-on-year to 195,000 tonnes in June. Turkey was the second largest buyer at 130,000 tonnes, down 33% from last year," Tyurina said.

Tyurina said that 45 exporting companies shipped wheat in June, down from 74 last season. Exports of grain and leguminous crops were transshipped through 40 ports compared to 48 the previous year. The port of Novorossiysk was traditionally the largest, with transshipments increasing 22.8% to 1.987 million tonnes. Roadstead transshipment decreased 23.2% to slightly over 1 million tonnes.

"Transshipment via Rostov-on-Don has fallen quite significantly by 35% to 403,500 tonnes and Azov by 70% to 215,700 tonnes. Transshipment via Astrakhan has decreased by 12% to 195,000 tonnes, though exports via the new port of Vysotsky have increased 3.8-fold to 116,000 tonnes," Tyurina said.

She said that the price situation on the market indicates high competition. French wheat has fallen in price by $2 to $237 per tonne in a week; U.S. wheat by $5 to $224 per tonne; and Russian wheat by $1 to $236 per tonne free on board (FOB) at Novorossiysk. "Our discount to European wheat remains at a minimum level of only $1 per tonne. Low prices for Romanian, Bulgarian, and Ukrainian grain are pressuring the global market," Tyurina said. "Moreover, demand is growing from large exporters, such as Egypt, for example. A factor that could lead to a decline in prices would be the arrival of a new harvest on the market, at which time, prices traditionally fall."

Tyurina also said that the prices of wheat producers fell by an average of 200 rubles per tonne over the week in the south, by 280 rubles in the center, and by 100 rubles in the Volga Region. Grade 4 wheat averaged 13,300-13,400 rubles per tonne, excluding VAT.

Meantime, prices rose 21.8% to 14,700 rubles per tonne, including VAT, compared to the beginning of last season.

"The situation is improving, and prices are growing in anticipation of a reduction in the gross harvest. This is the main factor," Tyurina said.