Ukrainian currency's exchange rate could be UAH 42/$1 at end-2024 - consensus forecast

MOSCOW. June 25 (Interfax) - The hryvnia's exchange rate against the dollar is expected to be about UAH 42/$1 at the end of this year, Ukrainian media reported, quoting a consensus forecast by seven investment companies and non-governmental analytical centers unveiled by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).

The CES said that six months ago the forecast was UAH 40.5/$1.

Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital and ICU, Oxford Economics and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), Center for Economic Research and German Economic Team took part in the consensus forecast. They said the forecast for the average annual exchange rate has worsened from UAH 38.7/$1 to UAH 40.1/$1, while in the budget it is set at UAH 40.7/$1.

CES Deputy Director Maria Repkon said that given the new exchange rate forecast, the estimate of the budget deficit in dollars remained practically the same at just over $40 billion, the estimate of financial needs increased by about $3 billion to $53.5 billion, and international assistance rose by about $1.5 billion to $36.5 billion.

The average inflation forecast for 2024 has been improved from just over 10% to less than 8%, while expectations for real GDP growth have worsened to just under 3.5% from around 3.9%. Moreover, if in December 2023 some analysts assumed that the economy would grow by 5% this year, now optimists estimate it to be slightly higher than 4%.

Public debt at the end of this year could be about 94-96% of GDP.