Kazakhstan's National Bank downgrades 2025 GDP forecast, upgrades outlook for 2026

ASTANA. May 31 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Kazakhstan has adjusted its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8-5.8%, while improving the outlook for 2026 to 4.9-5.9%.

Previously, the bank projected economic growth for Kazakhstan in 2024 at 3.5-4.5%, in 2025 at 5.5-6.5%, and in 2026 at 3.5-4.5%.

The revision of forecasts for 2025 and 2026 is due to the postponement of the commissioning of a project to increase production at the Tengiz oil field to the second half of 2025, the central bank said.

"Economic growth (in 2024) will be ensured by an increase in consumer lending, investment activity in the non-resource sector, and growth in real incomes for the population amid fiscal stimulus. The growth of tax collection and the actual dynamics of the non-oil budget deficit indicate a continuation of the trend towards stimulating fiscal policy," - the statement said.

The economic growth of Kazakhstan in 2023 was 5.1%.

Future production expansion and wellhead pressure management (FGP-WPMP) projects at one of the three largest oil fields in Kazakhstan, Tengiz, are being implemented by field operator Tengizchevroil (TCO). The projects will increase TCO's production by 12 million tonnes per year.

The projects were initially supposed to be completed at the end of 2022, but as the work fell behind schedule, the deadlines were adjusted, and the cost of the projects increased from $45.2 billion to $46.7 billion. It became known in January 2024 that the launch of the FGP at Tengiz was postponed until the second quarter of 2025, and the WPMP until the second quarter of 2024. TCO began operating Pressure Management Project facilities in April.