Ukraine might export up to 14 mln tonnes of wheat in 2024-2025 agricultural year - association
MOSCOW. May 8 (Interfax) - Wheat production in Ukraine in 2024 is likely to be within 19 million to 20 million tonnes, and up to 14 million tonnes of it would be exported in the 2024-2025 agricultural year (July 2024 to June 2025), the Ukrainian Agrarian Council's (UAC) Pusk analytical cooperative said in a report.
"Wheat offer will significantly shrink in the new season. Its stocks in Ukraine are no higher than 5 million tonnes, while they were 8 million tonnes last year. Contracts for exporting 1.65 million tonnes have been signed. According to initial estimates, Ukrainian wheat production this year will not be higher than 19 million to 20 million tonnes, against 23 million tonnes harvested last year. Hence, Ukraine will be able to export no more than 13 million to 14 million tonnes in the new season," Ukrainian media quoted Pusk as saying in its report.
A decline in wheat stocks and production would reduce their export potential in the next season by 2 million to 3 million tonnes, it said.
"These are objective factors making wheat more expensive in the new season. From $200 to $210 per tonne of food-grade wheat is a minimum that we'll see as early as in the fall and winter. Weather risks would also be pushing up both the exchange and traders," it said.
The report mentioned growing demand and prices for food-grade wheat, as buyers are accumulating stocks. The experts also named cheaper logistics as another factor boosting sales of Ukrainian wheat.
"Freight prices have lately been going down by $2 to $4 per tonne a week. This has a positive effect on wheat prices on the CPT market. Owing to this, we see growing trade in grain. May and June often see downward trends on the physical market, especially based on CPT. This season, however, food-grade wheat may reach record high prices, although this will happen no sooner than September," Pusk said.
As reported, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in April increased its outlook of wheat exports from Ukraine in the current agricultural year (July 2023 to June 2024) by 1.5 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes.