NBU estimates Ukraine's electricity imports at $0.8 billion in 2024 and $0.6 billion in 2025
MOSCOW. May 6 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in its evaluation of the current state of the country's energy infrastructure, has included an electricity deficit of about 5% on average in 2024-2025 in its macro forecast, while estimating electricity imports at $0.8 billion in 2024 and $0.6 billion in 2025.
"If there are no new significant destructive events, the NBU estimates that the electricity deficit, even with imports and partial restoration/installation of new generating capacities, will amount to 5-7% on average during the 2nd-4th quarters of 2024," Ukrainian media reported, citing the NBU's April inflation report.
This means limiting consumption for both households and industry. Due to uneven consumption throughout the day during peak hours, the deficit can reach 25-30% and be higher in energy-deficient regions, the National Bank said.
"The deficit will continue in 2025 (on average 7% in the first quarter and 3% until the end of the year)," NBU analysts said.
The emergence of a significant electricity shortage is likely already in the second quarter of 2024 with a decrease in floods and the need for repairs of nuclear power plant units, the report says. In the future, the electricity shortage may increase with increased consumption in the summer and during the heating season.
The National Bank said that the integration of the Ukrainian energy system with the European one makes it possible to attract imported power in the amount of 1.7 GW (according to the ENTSO-E permit), which is used to compensate for the temporary shortage of generating capacity during peak consumption hours, as well as to balance the energy system. However, due to significant consumption fluctuations, including in neighboring countries, import capacity is likely to be less than the maximum volume. In addition, import coverage is limited due to imbalances in networks, especially as far as low capacity in certain regions due to significant damage is concerned.
If there is further destruction of the energy infrastructure, Ukraine's GDP growth rate will be lower than in the baseline scenario (3% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025), and price increases will be higher due to increased costs due to the use of more expensive energy sources .
"However, the level of readiness of businesses and the population for potential power outages is higher than in 2022-2023, and this will limit the negative impact of electricity shortages on the economy," the NBU said.