National Bank of Ukraine lowers 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3%, 2025 to 5.3%

MOSCOW. April 25 (Interfax) - The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the country's GDP growth in 2024 to 3%, from the 3.6% it was expecting in January.

This is due, among other things, to limited budget spending amid uncertainty over inflows of external financing in the first quarter and to the blockade of Ukraine's western border, Ukrainian media reported, with reference to a briefing by NBU Governor Andrei Pyshny in Kiev on Thursday.

The NBU forecasts further recovery in economic activity in the wake of recent developments in the issue of receiving international assistance and an expected pickup in domestic and foreign demand. Pyshny said the operation of the sea corridor, favorable weather, and an increase in domestic demand supported economic growth.

The NBU's forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 was also lowered, to 5.3% from 5.8%, while for 2026 it was kept at 4.5%.

Given the receipt of better than expected data for 2023 on nominal GDP - UAH 6.538 trillion instead of UAH 6.51 trillion - the forecast for nominal GDP in 2024 has also been slightly increased - to UAH 7.59 trillion from UAH 7.58 trillion. Forecasts for the next years are practically unchanged: UAH 8.705 trillion in 2025 and UAH 9.685 trillion in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth at 3.2% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. The World Bank gives the same forecasts: 3.2% and 6.5%.

Ukraine's GDP grew 5.3% in 2023.