Russia's Economic Development Ministry increases inflation forecast 5.1% for 2024 at dollar exchange rate of 94.7 rubles/$

MOSCOW. April 23 (Interfax) - The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts inflation in Russia in 2024 at 5.1%, Russia's Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said while presenting the main parameters of the macro forecast for 2024-2027 at a government meeting.

This represents an increase in the ministry's 2024 inflation forecast from 4.5% in the September version.

The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that inflation will return to the target of 4% in 2025.

The average annual ruble exchange rate is projected at 94.7 rubles per dollar in 2024 (in September the forecast was 90.1 rubles per dollar for 2024), Reshetnikov said.

"In terms of inflation, we expect a slowdown to 5.1% by the end of the year. Let me remind you that at the end of last year the inflation rate was 7.4%," the minister said.

"We expect the average annual ruble exchange rate to be 94.7 rubles per dollar," he added.

The Ministry of Economic Development forecasts that the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2025 will be 98.6 rubles/$, 101.2 rubles/$ in 2026, and 103.8 rubles/$ in 2027.

"The ruble exchange rate will weaken in accordance with the inflation differential, and the real effective ruble exchange rate will remain stable," Reshetnikov said about the 2025-2027 forecast.

"In terms of inflation, we expect to reach the Bank of Russia's target level of 4% in 2025," the minister said.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Economic Development said that the ministry included in the forecast the same parameters for changing tariffs that were in the September forecast.

The Ministry of Economic Development expects annual inflation in Russia to peak in April-May, he said.

The spokesman also said that the Ministry of Economic Development believes that "the peak of ruble strengthening passed at the end of 2023," and "the rate of 94-95 rubles per dollar is now comfortable" for the economy.