Rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2024 to be 4% higher than preliminary estimate - analysts

MOSCOW. April 17 (Interfax) - Rapeseed production in Ukraine in 2024 may reach 4.3 million tonnes, which is 4% above the preliminary estimate, but 7% below the 2023 figure, Ukrainian media reported, citing the forecast made by the APK-Inform information and analytical agency.

"The forecast has been adjusted due to an increase in the sowing area under this crop to 1.49 million hectares (+4% compared to the preliminary estimate; -4% against 2023)," the analysts said.

They also increased the export potential of rapeseed in the 2024-2025 marketing year up to 3.6 million tonnes, which is 2% higher than the preliminary estimate, but 2% less than in the 2023-2024 season.

Experts noted that the overwhelming majority of farmers evaluated the condition of winter rapeseed after wintering as good and satisfactory. However, the lack of moisture, which was observed in the soil due to a rather dry March and the first half of April, caused concerns about the yield potential. The situation is expected to be affected by the cyclone that reached the country this week.

"The popularity of rapeseed has greatly increased in Ukraine in recent years, which has been facilitated by the sustained high demand for Ukrainian oilseed from European importers. Therefore, rapeseed in Ukraine is now one of the most highly liquid crops and it is a fairly quick way for agricultural producers to gain funds," the agency said.

Furthermore, in the last few years, the cost of rapeseed on the domestic market is quite attractive for farmers and among the key oilseeds is inferior mainly only to soybean prices, but it is quite sensitive to global production and to the price dynamics on the European market of this oilseed.

"In the new season, the prospects for Ukrainian rapeseed are also quite good: a decline in the production of this oilseed in the European Union is expected (from -2% according to the European Commission to -10% according to Strategie Grains), which is already generating an increased demand on the market. However, according to recent estimates of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA), the production of Australian canola may increase 14% in 2024, which along with Canadian oilseeds are direct competitors of Ukrainian rapeseed on the European market," APK-Inform said in the forecast.