16 Apr 2024 14:22

EDB forecasts Tajikistan's economic growth to slow to 5.7% in 2024

DUSHANBE. April 16 (Interfax) - The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a macroeconomic forecast, which presents the main indicators of the region's countries for 2024, as well as for 2025-2026.

The situation in Tajikistan's economy in 2024-2025 may evolve less favorably than the EDB's baseline forecast suggests in the event of a deeper slump in the economy worldwide and in the region, the analytical material says. The inflow of money transfers to the country will decline and Tajikistan's export revenue will drop under these conditions, it says.

"Under the pessimistic scenario, we assume that the country's economic growth in 2024 may slow to 5.7%. The adverse effects of weaker external demand and a larger decline in transfers would be partially offset by the National Bank of Tajikistan's softer monetary policy. Cheaper energy and food products may also offset the negative shocks," the document says.

According to the bank's forecasts, Tajikistan's GDP growth is expected to remain high at 7.3% in 2024. The deteriorating external economic environment will be seen behind a certain slowdown compared to 2023.

The GDP growth in Tajikistan will continue to be supported by expanding capacity in the industry (primarily in metallurgy, energy, textile and food industries) and accompanying investment activity, in particular, as part of the implementation of the government's economic development programs, it said.

"The GDP growth will reach 6%-7% in 2025-2026. These rates are close to the potential rates for Tajikistan. They are higher than average for the region due to the presence of structural factors that maintain the rapid growth of the country's economy: its catch-up pattern of development and high population growth rates," the statement says.

The inflation rate will be close to 6.0% in 2025-2026, which means that it will be in the middle of the National Bank of Tajikistan's target range, it added.