OPEC maintains forecast oil demand growth in 2024-2025, non-OPEC supply growth for 2025 raised slightly

MOSCOW. April 11 (Interfax) - OPEC has maintained its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, with demand expected to grow by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 to 104.46 million bpd, and by another 1.85 million bpd in 2025 to 106. 31 million bpd.

OPEC said in a report that the demand estimate in Q1 2024 was increased by 200,000 bpd to 103.53 million bpd, the Q2 estimate was lowered by 90,000 bpd to 103.82 million bpd, in Q3 demand is expected be 20,000 bpd higher at 104.9 million bpd, and in Q4 it could be 120,000 bpd less than expected a month ago at 105.57 million bpd.

The demand forecast for OECD Europe and some non-OECD countries in Q1 was increased slightly, but the forecast for the Middle East and Africa was lowered due to historical data.

The forecast for oil supply by non-OPEC countries has been adjusted slightly: in 2024, this is expected to increase by 1.07 million bpd to 70.44 million bpd, while a month ago an increase of 1 million bpd to 70.53 million bpd was predicted.

The growth forecast for 2025 has increased from 1.3 million to 1.4 million bpd and is now 71.75 million bpd.

OPEC estimates Russian liquids production decreased by approximately 40,000 bpd in February compared to the previous month and averaged 10.8 million bpd.

Previously, OPEC estimated that Russia produced 9.5 million bpd of oil and 1.4 million bpd of condensate in January.

The forecast for 2024 is that liquid hydrocarbon production in Russia will decrease by approximately 0.2 million bpd compared to the previous year, averaging 10.7 million bpd, as in the previous estimate. All announced voluntary adjustments to oil production until the end of 2024 are taken into account.