Rosstat confirms 3.6% Russian GDP growth estimate for 2023

MOSCOW. April 5 (Interfax) - Russian GDP grew 3.6% in 2023, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a second estimate published on Friday.

The economy fell 1.2% in 2022.

Rosstat confirmed the 3.6% growth it gave in its first estimate. The second estimate also updates some quarterly figures for 2023.

Rosstat gave its first GDP estimate for Q4 2023 - this grew 4.9% year-on-year, it said.

Dynamics for Q1-3 last year were adjusted: year-on-year GDP decline was 1.6% in Q1, adjusted from 1.8%; growth was 5.1% in Q2, adjusted from 4.9%; and growth was 5.7% in Q3, adjusted from 5.5%.

GDP was 172.148 trillion rubles at current prices in 2023. The GDP index deflator with respect to 2022 prices was 107.0%.

Rosstat estimates the oil and gas sector's share of GDP fell to 16.5% in 2023 from 18.0% in 2022 - this was 17.6% in 2021, 14.0% in 2020, 18.8% in 2019 and 20.7% in 2018.

The Russian Economic Development Ministry has estimated GDP growth at 6.0% for January-February 2024. It said the economy grew an estimated 7.7% year-on-year in February, due partly to the leap year day, and 4.6% in January.

The ministry said in September 2023 that it expects GDP will grow 2.3% in 2024. The Central Bank of Russia thinks 1.0%-2.0% growth is likely. Analysts said in a consensus forecast at the beginning of March that GDP might grow 1.5% this year.