Russian GDP growth accelerates to 7.7% in Feb, reaches 6% in Jan-Feb

MOSCOW. April 4 (Interfax) - Russian GDP growth accelerated to 7.7% year-on-year in February from 4.6% in January, the Economic Development Ministry estimated in its report on the current economic situation, which was published on Wednesday.

Russia's GDP grew by 6.0% in the first two months of 2024, the ministry estimated.

The acceleration of growth is attributed in part to the extra leap-year day in February 2024. Seasonally adjusted, Russia's GDP grew by 0.2% in February compared to January, the ministry estimated.

"In the estimate of the Economic Development Ministry, in February 2024 GDP exceeded last year's level by 7.7% after 4.6% year-on-year [growth] in January. Seasonally adjusted, GDP growth in February amounted to 0.2% month-on-month. Compared to the same month of 2022, GDP rose by 4.7% (2.0% in January)," the report said.

Industrial production growth accelerated to 8.5% year-on-year in February from 4.6% in January. "Seasonally adjusted, production rose by 1.3%. Compared to the level two years ago, there was acceleration to 6.3% after 1.6% a month earlier," the report said.

"Consumer activity is demonstrating confident growth of all components," the ministry said. The combined turnover of retail sales, the food services industry and consumer services grew by 10.6% year-on-year in real terms in February after increasing by 8.1% in January, and was up by 4.7% compared to February 2022, the report said. Seasonally adjusted growth amounted to 0.4%, the ministry estimated.

Retail sales growth accelerated to 12.3% year-on-year in real terms from 9.1% in January, and growth amounted to 2.5% compared to February 2022. Consumer services grew by 6.4% year-on-year in February, the same as the previous month, and were up by 9.1% from February 2022.

The food services sector saw the strongest acceleration of growth, to 8.9% year-on-year in February from 2.1% a month earlier, and was up 17.6% from two years earlier.

Russia's GDP expanded by 3.6% in 2023. The Economic Development Ministry's September 2023 forecast projects that GDP will grow by 2.3% in 2024. The Central Bank of Russia forecasts growth of 1.0-2.0% this year, while a consensus forecast of analysts polled at the start of March projected growth of 1.5%.