Russian Central Bank retains inflation forecast at 4%-4.5% for 2024

MOSCOW. March 22 (Interfax) - The Central Bank of Russia still expects inflation to drop to 4%-4.5% in 2024, and should remain close to the target rate going forward, the CBR said in a press release following the meeting of the regulator's board of directors on Friday.

Seasonally adjusted current price growth in February remained at January's level, and it has been declining in March according to preliminary data, the CBR said. Meantime, trends in the consumer basket have varied from a significant slowdown in price growth for goods to acceleration in prices for services. The annual inflation rate has remained at February's level of 7.7% according to estimates as on March 18.

Inflationary pressures remain elevated owing to solid domestic demand although monetary conditions continue tightening. The majority of stable indicators of current price growth are in the 6%-7% year-on-year range, the CBR said. Seasonally adjusted core inflation rose to 7.7% year-on-year in February from 6.8% year-on-year in January owing to price rises for foreign tourism services, the regulator said. Core inflation did not change substantially when excluding tourism services.

Household and enterprise inflation expectations, respectively, continued to decline, though remain at elevated levels, thereby determining the inertia of the currently elevated rise in prices, the CBR said.