Russia trims oil exports 1.7% to 7.6 mln bpd in February, sees revenues slip 0.9% to $15.7 bln - IEA
MOSCOW. March 14 (Interfax) - Russia trimmed exports of oil and petroleum products by 140,000 barrels per day (1.7%) month-on-month to 7.6 million bpd in February, and saw revenues from oil exports slip 0.9% to $15.7 billion, with higher prices for petroleum products only partially offsetting the effect of the lower volumes of oil exports, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report.
Average prices for all types of crude oil rose month-on-month and continued to exceed the G7 price cap, while all petroleum products traded below the price cap, with the exception of naphtha. Government budget revenues rose in February despite the elimination of oil export duties, which came into effect retroactively last month, reflecting higher international oil prices.
As the IEA notes, exports were moderately affected by Ukraine's repeated attacks on Russian refineries. Urals crude prices rose more than $4/bbl y-o-y to average $66.2/bbl, while ESPO prices rose $2.90/bbl to $76.52/bbl. As the North Sea Dated price increased by $3.64/bbl, the discount to Urals decreased by $0.60/bbl, while the discount to ESPO increased by $0.80/bbl, to - $7.38/bbl. However, the ESPO discount to Dubai M1 decreased to $4.35/bbl. The price differential of Urals delivered to India's west coast to Dubai M1 narrowed to $1.03/bbl, reducing its competitiveness. According to preliminary data from Kpler, Russian blend exports to India declined from an average of 1.2m bpd in December and January to 1 million bpd in February.
Overall, oil exports from Russia fell to 4.75 million bpd in February after the December peak of 5 million bpd, with the drop equally distributed between pipeline and sea routes. Shipments to China rose by 100,000 bpd to 2.2 million bpd, while exports to India fell by 420,000 bpd from the previous month to 1.2 million bpd.
Russian oil cargoes remain virtually the only ones transiting north-south via the Red Sea. Volumes fell by about 250,000 bpd in January and may have fallen further in February following ongoing attacks on ships in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by the Houthis. The cost of Urals transportation from Primorsk to the west coast of India has remained unchanged at around $12/bbl since mid-November.
Exports of refined products in February were about the same as in the previous month. About 800,000 bpd have no definite destination yet. The reduction in supplies of light fractions (LPG - 20,000 bpd year-on-year, naphtha - 40,000 bpd, gasoil - 80,000 bpd) was offset by a sharp increase in exports of fuel oil (+140,000 bpd) and NGLs (+80,000 bpd) from Ust-Luga
Since Q3 of last year, about 50% of Russian oil product exports have been delivered east of Suez, with the rest split almost equally between Africa, Latin America and Turkey. Nigeria is currently the largest importer of Russian gasoline (60,000 bpd in December 2023 and January 2024).