Ukrainian grains and oilseeds harvest could fall nearly 8% in 2024 - association

MOSCOW. March 12 (Interfax) - The Ukrainian Grain Association estimates the potential grains and oilseeds harvest for 2024 at 76.1 million tonnes, down 6.5 million tonnes or 7.9% from last year's 82.6 million tonnes.

"The potential decline in the new season's harvest will be caused by a reduction in the area under crops, mainly cereals, due to unfavorable global price conditions and relatively expensive export logistics," Ukrainian media reported, quoting the UGA press office.

Exports in the 2024/2025 marketing year could be around 43.7 million tonnes but could reach 53.1 million tonnes "provided that the Ukrainian sea corridor and the Danube route operate smoothly," the UGA said.

The wheat crop in 2024 is forecast at 20 million tonnes compared with 22 million tonnes in 2022. Potential wheat exports in the 2024/2025 MY might reach about 13 million tonnes, given the carry-over stocks of 2.4 million tonnes at the beginning of the season.

The 2024 barley harvest could reach 4.6 million tonnes, up from 5.8 million tonnes in 2023, while potential exports in 2024/2025 MY could be around 2 million tonnes, the forecast for the current season being 2.5 million tonnes.

The UGA estimates the corn crop in 2024 at 26.3 million tonnes, down from last year's 29.6 million tonnes. At the same time, potential exports could reach around 20.5 million tonnes, while exports in the current season are expected to reach 26 million tonnes. "Expectations for the corn crop in the new season are deteriorating due to a possible reduction in the area planted. Farmers are suffering losses due to purchase prices being too low for the crop, driven by a decline in world prices," the UGA said.

The 2024 sunflower crop is expected to be 13.7 million tonnes, down from 14.2 million tonnes in 2023. Potential exports could reach 250,000 tonnes with 400,000 tonnes expected this season, while sunflower oil crushing could reach almost 13.6 million tonnes, compared with 13.5 million tonnes this season.

The rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.2 million tonnes in 2024, compared with just over 4.3 million tonnes in 2023, while exports in the 2024/2025 MY could be level with the current season at 3.6 million tonnes.

As for soybeans, this is the only crop where farmers will be able to increase planted areas this year due to its profitability, the UGA said. The 2024 soybean harvest is expected to reach 5.5 million tonnes, up from 4.9 million tonnes in 2023. Potential exports in 2024/2025 MY could reach 4 million tonnes, up from 3.3 million tonnes in the current season.

The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last five years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may lead to adjustments, the UGA said.

The UGA is the national association of producers, processors and exporters of grain.