Russia exported 47 mln tonnes of grain from July 1 2023 through March 10 - Grain Union

MOSCOW. March 11 (Interfax) - From the beginning of the current agricultural year (July 1, 2023) through March 10, the Russia exported a record 47 million tonnes of grain for the period, President of the Russian Grain Union Arkady Zlochevsky said at a press conference on Monday in Moscow.

"This, of course, is a positive factor. We loaded very actively throughout the fall and even in the winter, despite weather disasters and the fact that shipments from our ports were very difficult; in general, this held us back. But now, volumes have recovered," he said.

Our export potential is estimated at 70 million tonnes by the end of the season (through June 30, 2024 inclusive), "if, accordingly, volumes are added to the quota," Zlochevsky said. He said that a draft government decree which would add 4 million tonnes to the quota is currently under consideration. Thus, the quota volume could reach 28 million tonnes.

"Accordingly, this will allow us to export 70 million tonnes. In principle, this is a feasible task. The most important and fundamental question is: will the market situation allow us to export? We have recently observed a very dynamic decline in prices, primarily for wheat," he said. "Now our FOB price (Novorossiysk) is $204-207 per tonne. There were, let's say, some serious and justified hopes that by spring prices would start to revive and rise, but they did not come true."

The price situation on the market may not change until next season, despite the fact that all forecasts say that world wheat stocks could decrease 2%, he said. However, the faster growth in stocks of other grain types will offset this decline. In addition, the demand for food wheat has not been growing recently, Zlochevsky said.

"The demand for grain in general is growing, but mostly for feed crops. We do not have this type of wheat in stock, which means the market for sales is not expanding. We still need to put food wheat somewhere. We need to place our growing volumes somewhere in this inert and non-expanding market, and, accordingly, this leads to the fact of wheat prices remaining at a very low level. Now, through to the end of the season, all forecasts show very low prices and a further decline, and no growth. We can only expect growth prospects and a pricing recovery next season," Zlochevsky said.

The head of the Grain Union also said that Egypt is currently in first place in Russian wheat purchases, with Turkey in second. Bangladesh is in third place. Bangladesh has greatly increased its purchases, even compared to last season, despite the fact that it had a pause in purchases, the head of the union said. "Last season it purchased 1.305 million tonnes, and this season, through March 10, it has already purchased 3.158 million tonnes," he said.

Pakistan is in fourth place. "Algeria, a traditional former French colony, has entered the top five. Moreover, there were fears that Algeria would return to French purchases this season after last season. But it has already purchased 2.26 million tonnes from us," Zlochevsky said. "The picture is changing. Indonesia "is actively increasing purchases. Last season it was not visible at all, but this season it is already in sixth place."