Interfax CEA to perform banking sector forecast for Deposit Insurance Agency

The Interfax Center for Economic Analysis (Interfax CEA) has won a tender organized by the state Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA) to perform a Forecast of the Key Parameters and Structure of the Russian Banking System in 2009-2010.

The Interfax CEA will perform research based on the banking system‘s predicted key parameters, simulating patterns for banking capital, the structure and volume of assets, loans and deposits, deposit interest rates, provisions for loan impairment and profitability.

It will analyze the impact of government policy in the real economy and the banking sector as a whole, assessing all parameters, taking the situation in the Russian economy and international market into consideration.

The Interfax CEA will assess the financial health of the DIA itself and its guarantee fund from the point of view of their capability to provide the necessary compensation. This includes an examination of the liquidity risks of Russian banks, their policies and how they affect shareholders, identifying those banks that could require rescue packages or be liquidated with the DIA‘s involvement, and potential insurance costs for distressed banks.

"Analyzing the banking sector in times of crisis is not just about looking at the figures, but also the sentiment of market players, their broader strategies and the intentions of shareholders. Therefore, the Interfax CEA plans to monitor news environment and to arrange a series of exclusive interviews with representatives of the banking community," said Mikhail Matovnikov, the Interfax CEA‘s General Director.

Matovnikov said that polls among experts would help expose additional risks and identify positive factors that could be decisive in shaping the Russian banking system‘s future.

The contract with the DIA is the second the Interfax CEA has signed with a government department so far this year. The Interfax CEA in January 2009 signed a three-year contract with the Russian Finance Ministry on information and analytical support for liaison between the ministry and international rating agencies and investors; for the drafting of a state foreign debt management strategy; and for determining the creditworthiness of Russia‘s potential sovereign borrowers.

*** The Interfax CEA is a member of the Interfax International Information Services Group and specializes in periodical statistical and analytical products from various segments of the Russia and CIS financial markets as well as providing information about Russian institutional investors and their activity. The Interfax CEA‘s products include daily forecasts and reports about different segments of the financial market, the Interfax-100 rankings of the largest banks and insurance companies and the Interfax-1000 rankings of the largest CIS banks and insurers.

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