Russian Grain Exporters Union Executive Director Ksenia Bolomatova: Exports facing difficulties, but quite steady overall
Ksenia Bolomatova
Photo: Press-office
Russia has faced new difficulties in grain exports this year, including amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the pace of shipments and expert assessments, including those from abroad, assume that the leadership on the global wheat market gained several years ago will be maintained this season.
Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers Executive Director Ksenia Bolomatova told Interfax in an interview about what affects export dynamics, whether Russian grain traders have managed to adapt to new conditions on the global market, what the potential for grain exports is in the current season, and what is happening with exchange trading.
Q.: The dynamics of grain exports this season largely resemble a sine wave. However, there has been a steady increase since March. What are the main factors contributing to this increase? How is the situation in the Middle East affecting the grain market? How would you assess the overall export situation this season?
A.: The situation in the Middle East is certainly putting additional pressure on the grain market. This affects logistics, transport corridors, and freight costs, thereby increasing global price volatility. However, it should be noted that grain prices are not reacting as sharply as energy prices, for example. Overall, the season can be evaluated as productive and stable, with good export potential.
Specifically regarding Russian grain exports, the situation in the current season is generally shaping up quite well, despite a number of objective difficulties. In 2025, a substantial grain harvest of approximately 142 million tonnes was recorded. This was the third-largest harvest in the country's history, creating favorable export opportunities.
The season's dynamics were uneven. July 2025 [the beginning of the season] saw the lowest values - less than 3 million tonnes. This was due to drought and low initial yields in the south, as well as harvesting delays in the central regions caused by rain.
However, growth then began to pick up, with shipments exceeding the average of 6.2 million tonnes in October and exports reaching record levels of 6.9 million and 7.9 million tonnes in November and December, respectively.
The beginning of 2026 proved to be more subdued for grain exports due to challenging weather conditions. Shipments slowed because of severe ice conditions in the Azov and Caspian Seas, as well as storms in the Black Sea. However, the negative trend reversed in March, with the total for January-March exceeding 11 million tonnes. This growth was impressive, reaching one and a half times last year's level. At the same time, this result corresponds to the average for the past five years.
Q.: Can we say, then, that grain traders have fully adapted to the current trading conditions, or should they expect more surprises?
A.: In general, grain traders are demonstrating a high degree of adaptability in the current conditions. They are operating in a challenging external environment. For example, this season, competition has intensified sharply due to record wheat harvests in the European Union, Canada, Australia, and Argentina. The global wheat harvest exceeded last year's figures by 42 million tonnes, while consumption, according to the latest estimates, is 20 million tonnes lower.
Furthermore, the grain production map in Russia has changed in 2025: yields have increased significantly in central regions, the Volga region, and Siberia. This new geographic pattern increases logistics costs and puts additional pressure on prices. Grain traders have to optimize costs and improve business efficiency.
Q.: Is the form of interaction with customers changing - directly or through intermediaries?
A.: As for the format of interaction, it is important to consider the specifics of each market, logistics, and regulatory features.
Of course, priority is given to direct contracts with major buyers, such as government agencies or leading processors. This minimizes intermediary costs, ensures steady supply volumes and product quality control, and improves pricing transparency.
Q.: Does the union already have a forecast for grain shipments, including wheat, for the current season?
A.: Yes, according to our estimates, grain exports could reach at least 60 million tonnes.
Russian wheat has been the clear leader on the global market for the past five seasons. There are solid grounds for maintaining this leading position this season. The European Union, our closest competitor, plans to export approximately 30 million to 31 million tonnes, underscoring the major advantage of domestic exports.
The foundation of any country's exports is primarily a production surplus. Last year saw a bumper wheat harvest of 91.1 million tonnes, with a drastic increase in yield. This provides sufficient resource potential for exports, which could reach 54 million tonnes in 2026.
Even taking into account the challenging external environment and logistical constraints, Russia remains a key supplier of grain crops, particularly wheat, on the global market.
The government's decision to impose an additional grain export quota of 5 million tonnes will also support exports. As a result, the total volume of authorized exports will be 25 million tonnes [the quota is valid from February 15 to June 30] by the end of the season.
Q.: Which countries offer prospects for increased Russian grain shipments abroad, primarily wheat?
A.: Russian grain traditionally maintains a strong position on key markets in the Middle East and North Africa. These include primarily Turkey and Egypt, which remain the largest buyers. After drastically reducing purchases last season, Turkey doubled its import volumes, and it is once again the leading buyer of Russian grain. In the first nine months of the 2025-2026 season, Russian exporters supplied 7.5 million tonnes of grain and legumes to the Turkish market, including 5.9 million tonnes of wheat.
Egypt also continues to see a trend toward increased grain imports amid rising domestic consumption of food and feed crops. This season, Russia exported over 7.6 million tonnes of grain, primarily wheat, to the country's market.
At the same time, other growth markets are emerging - Iran, Sudan, China, and Israel. Iraq deserves special mention, as it is steadily increasing its wheat purchases and is viewed as a promising destination for further expansion of supplies.
Q.: How has the share of African countries in Russian grain exports changed? What might it be by the end of the current season?
A.: Africa does indeed remain one of the most promising markets for Russian grain. It is a large and rapidly growing market, and Russian exporters' interest in it is understandable.
Africa's population is growing quickly, yet local agricultural production cannot keep up with the increasing demand for food, especially wheat. This increases the region's dependence on external supplies and creates a sustained need for grain imports.
Today, African countries already account for a significant share of Russian exports. This is primarily due to North African countries and a number of other countries on the continent that are actively purchasing wheat.
During the 2024-2025 season, African countries accounted for a record-high 40% of Russian grain exports. In particular, cooperation with Nigeria has markedly intensified after a temporary decline in 2022-2023. Annual exports to Kenya have quadrupled over the past few years, and today Russian wheat accounts for more than half of that country's import needs.
The Union expects Africa's share to remain high this season. We need to wait for the final results of the season for a more accurate assessment, but the trend is clear: Africa is becoming an increasingly important destination for Russian grain shipments.
Q.: How would you assess the current state of grain exchange trading in Russia?
A.: Grain exchange trading has significant potential. Suffice it to say, this helps improve the resilience of supply chains and the investment attractiveness of the Russian grain sector. Exchange trading generates objective price indicators, which is crucial for market participants amid price volatility. It creates normal conditions for operational planning.
The Union is engaged in these processes, in particular, actively collaborating with the National Mercantile Exchange (NAMEX).
Positive results in the development of exchange trading in agricultural products are already evident. For example, while wheat was the only underlying asset traded on the exchange in 2021, the range of commodities now includes grains and legumes, oilseeds, and other agricultural products.
For the further development of the organized trading format, work is underway in several areas. This involves both bringing physical commodities to the exchange and expanding trading in derivative financial instruments.
Q.: What did the experience of the wheat spot auctions launched on the NAMEX in January reveal?
A.: Overall, the launch of the double auction format was a significant institutional step. This mechanism consolidates supply and demand in a unified anonymous order book at the exchange. The number of accredited suppliers has already exceeded 150 companies and continues to grow.
Sellers are encouraged by the absence of exchange fees, which is important for the low-margin grain market, as well as the ability to provide logistics with predetermined rates and priority for rail shipments.
As of April 20, the trading area has been expanded with a new delivery basis. CPT Rostov-on-Don/Azov has been added to CPT Novorossiysk, which is key for Russian grain exports. The NAMEX is currently working on further expanding the trading area.
Compared to grain export volumes, spot trade volumes remain relatively small. However, a stable and reliable price indicator is key for the market, which is why trading stability is more important than trading volume. Currently, the indicator is being calculated in test mode, and in the near future, spot trading results will be integrated into the price index calculation, which will increase confidence in exchange quotes as a benchmark for the domestic market.
The derivatives market is also developing on the Russian market. A wheat futures contract with settlement based on an exchange index is being traded. Together with the NAMEX and the Bank of Russia, we are working to create favorable regulatory and operational conditions for banks and other financial institutions involved in trading as market makers. This will increase liquidity and open up opportunities for risk hedging and financial planning for all market participants - from producers to processors and exporters.
Q.: The Union holds the Russian Grain Forum annually. What topics and issues will be the main ones for discussion this year?
A.: We have discussed the adaptability of Russian exporters to current conditions. Unfortunately, however, Russia's grain industry continues to face challenges on the global market - from the uncertainty associated with increasingly frequent climate anomalies to intense global competition. In these circumstances, it is crucial to review and strengthen our strategic pillars in order to continue the adaptation process.
The Russian Grain Forum, which takes place in Sochi at the end of May, brings together key industry players. This allows us to create a complete and objective picture of how the Russian grain market is developing.
This year, its plenary session with the participation of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev will focus on the development of grain market infrastructure and strengthening supply chains. This includes not only expanding transport routes and modernizing grain elevators and terminals, but also the access to financial instruments that allow for rapid response to changes, as well as ensuring an uninterrupted supply of everything producers need. Representatives from the Russian Transport Ministry, Russian Railways, the Federal Customs Service and the Bank of Russia have been invited to participate in the forum to comprehensively address these issues.
This year's business program focuses on digitalization and technology. These are the levers transforming storage, logistics, and exports, making them more efficient in an era of uncertainty.
We hope that a wide range of participants will help foster a shared understanding of what the next steps should be in the development of the domestic grain market. Furthermore, we expect that companies will receive practical advice on how to resolve any issues that arise.
Q.: How has the association's mission changed in recent years, and what are its current priorities?
A.: Over the years, the Union has evolved from an export promoter into a full-fledged representative of the entire grain industry - from grain production and storage to domestic transportation and global export shipments. The union's members are leading players on the Russian grain market: agricultural holdings, producers, logistics companies and terminals, and traders, which account for approximately 80% of Russian exports of grains and legumes.
Today, the Union serves as a key communication channel between the business community and the government. As before, promoting Russian products in foreign markets remains an important task. Business missions to promising markets where demand for Russian grain continues to grow are among the immediate priorities.
