Norilsk Nickel ups nickel surplus, lowers palladium deficit estimate for 2023

MOSCOW. May 31 (Interfax) - Norilsk Nickel has revised its 2023 nickel market surplus estimate to just over 200,000 tonnes, the company said in a metals market review.

Nornickel said in February that it estimated the nickel market surplus at 122,000 tonnes in 2023.

The new estimate was driven by lower-than-expected stainless steel production in Indonesia, as well as lower nickel use in the battery sector, on the back of increased NPI production in Indonesia and new Class 1 capacity in China and Indonesia.

A nickel market surplus of more than 180,000 tonnes is expected in 2024, the bulk of it still consisting of low-grade nickel.

Nornickel has lowered its 2023 palladium market deficit outlook to 200,000 ounces from the 300,000 oz it was forecasting in February due to a weaker-than-expected recovery in the car market - the forecast for global ICE vehicle production was lowered by 2.5 million units - and the revision of the impact of China's new emission rules for palladium in autocatalysts.

"In 2024, if the growth of recycling resumes and outpaces demand recovery, we expect the palladium market to become balanced," the company said.