IMF expects Ukraine GDP to drop 3% in 2023, won't forecast further periods

MOSCOW. April 11 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund, in its April World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, once again abandoned its forecast for Ukraine beyond the current year, although in the EFF program approved at the end of March, it gave estimates up to 2027.

"For Ukraine, all forecasts for 2024-2028 are excluded due to an unusually high degree of uncertainty," the WEO said.

According to a new review, the country's GDP will shrink 3% this year (in the EFF program, the forecast for the base scenario for this year is from -3% to +1%).

The report provides estimates for Ukraine for the current year which are in line with the baseline scenario in the EFF program: a decrease in inflation from 26.6% to 20%, a current account deficit of 4.4% after a surplus of 5.7% last year, and a decrease in unemployment to 20.9% from 24.5%.

The fund expects the net lending/borrowing of Ukrainian government bodies to worsen from minus 16.7% last year to minus 20.4% this year.

As reported, in the base scenario of the EFF program for Ukraine, the IMF predicts an acceleration of economic growth to 3.2% in 2024 and up to 6.5% in 2025, with a slowdown in 2026 and 2027 to 5% and 4%, respectively.

In the negative scenario, which assumes an increase in the financial gap from $115 billion to $140 billion, GDP is expected to fall 10% this year, 2% next year and achieve zero growth in 2025.