Inflation in Russia expected to reach 12.2% in 2022, annual figure could dip below 5% in Q1 2023 - Putin
BISHKEK. Dec 9 (Interfax) - Inflation in Russia is expected to reach 12.2% in 2022, and the annual rate could dip below 5% in the first quarter of 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in expanded format.
Putin said that Russia's GDP was forecast to contract 2.9% in 2022 and to contract 0.9% in 2023.
"Inflation this year will be about 12.2%, and it [the annual figure] could approach 5% according to the results of the next quarter [Q1 2023], and perhaps could be even lower. We have an obvious trend toward lower inflation," Putin said.
"The decline [in Russia's GDP] will be 2.9% this year, we expect [a decrease of] 0.9% next year, and we will continue to move in a positive trend," he said.
The interim forecast of the Central Bank of Russia is 12%-13% inflation in 2022 and 5%-7% in 2023.
The official forecast of the Russian Economic Development Ministry is 12.4% inflation in 2022 and 5.5% in 2023, although Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said at the beginning of November that inflation could end up below the ministry's current forecast in a range of 12%-12.4% this year.
According to the consensus forecast of economists surveyed by Interfax at the beginning of December, inflation will total 12.4% in 2022 and 5.9% in 2023.
The Economic Development Ministry projects that Russia's GDP will contract 2.9% in 2022 and 0.8% in 2023 followed by growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 2025.
The Central Bank's forecasts for the economy's dynamics in 2022-2025 are more conservative than the expectations of the Russian government. The Central Bank upgraded its forecast for decline in GDP at the end of October to 3%-3.5% in 2022 from the 4%-6% projected in July. The bank left its forecast for GDP in 2023 at a contraction of 1%-4%, while projecting 1.5%-2.5% growth in GDP annually in 2024-2025.
The consensus forecast from analysts surveyed by Interfax at the beginning of December projects that GDP will decline 3% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.