Ukraine's wheat exports to drop by one-third, corn exports to stay unchanged in 2022-2023 marketing year - forecast

MOSCOW. Nov 23 (Interfax) - Ukraine's agricultural exports in the 2022/2023 marketing year, which began in July 2022 and ends in June 2023, will decrease by 30.5% to 12.5 million tonnes from the 18 million tonnes delivered to foreign markets during the 2021-2022 marketing year, whereas corn exports will be the same as last year - 25 million tonnes.

UkrAgroConsult's grain market analyst Marina Marinich unveiled this forecast at the Ukrainian Export - How to Get Access to the Sea? International online conference on Wednesday, Ukrainian media said.

Ukraine's wheat harvest is expected to plunge by 41% to 18.1 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 marketing year as compared to the previous year's 32.1 million tonnes, while the country's corn harvest may drop by 40.6% to 27 million tonnes from the 42.1 million tonnes in the 2021-2022 marketing year, Marinich said.

The production of corn and barley in Ukraine has been declining because of China's weak demand for these crops, she said.

"Less cost-intensive crops may remain at the previous levels. There has already been a growth of buckwheat sown area this season, which is why its production may remain at a stably high level next season as well," the analyst said.

Also, the current marketing year may see a decline in sunflower oil exports by 4.4% to 4.3 million tonnes from the 4.5 million tonnes in the 2021-2022 marketing year, sunflower oil production in Ukraine is expected to drop by one-third to 11 million tonnes from 16.5 million tonnes. A key factor in sunflower oil exports will be the capability to transport it via Ukrainian seaports under the Istanbul grain deal.

According to Marinich, the key tendencies of the grain market in 2022 have been buyers' ability to dictate their terms to suppliers, the fact that market players were unable to make any long-term plans for their operations, and additional losses and expenses incurred at every stage of agricultural goods production.

The main tendencies in 2023 will be a transformation of strategies in the agricultural sector to be marked by a shift from yield enhancement efforts to steps to cut expenses, a reduction of the weather impact on agriculture as compared to other factors, as well as growing investment in the logistics and storage of agricultural products.

Marinich expects Ukraine to return to the yield enhancement strategy starting from 2025. At the same time, the investment appeal of the Ukrainian agricultural sector will increase, and there will also be a growth of interest in zero-waste and environmentally friendly production and diverse "green" initiatives by 2027.

As reported, the United States Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for corn exports from Ukraine in the 2022-2023 marketing year from July 2022 to June 2023 at 15.5 million tonnes and for overall corn harvest at 31.5 million tonnes in its November report.

The USDA also kept its outlook for the food-grade wheat harvest in Ukraine in the 2022-2023 marketing yer at 20.5 million tonnes, its exports at 11 million tonnes, and domestic consumption at 5.5 million tonnes.