Uncertainty over Russian economy's development in Q4 remains high, CBR holds GDP decline forecast for 2022 at 3-3.5%

MOSCOW. Nov 22 (Interfax) - Uncertainty over the situation unfolding in the Russian economy in Q4 2022 remains high, Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin told reporters on the sidelines of the Financial University Forum on Tuesday.

"How the fourth quarter will unfold, I think the uncertainty is still quite high in this regard," Zabotkin said.

He recalled that the Central Bank's forecast of Russian GDP decline for 2022 is "slightly more conservative" than the government's forecast. The Economic Development Ministry expects the economy to fall 2.9% in 2022, while First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said last week that the drop would be 2.8%-3.0%.

Russian GDP fell 4.0% year-on-year in Q3 2022 following decline of 4.1% in Q2 but growth of 3.5% in Q2 2022, the State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has said in a preliminary estimate. Rosstat did not give an estimate for January-September 2022, but the economy could have shrunk 1.8-1.9% year-on-year, based on the quarterly figures.

GDP will shrink 6.4-7.8% year-on-year in Q4, the CBR thinks. The economy will contract by 1-4% in 2023, as previously forecast, but grow 1.5-2.5% annually in 2024-2025.

The Econ Ministry expects GDP to shrink 2.9% in 2022 and another 0.8% in 2023, but then to grow by 2.6% annually in 2024-2025.