IMF expects Georgia's GDP to jump 10% in 2022 due to immigration consumption boom

TBILISI. Nov 14 (Interfax) - The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 to 10%, from the 9% growth it was predicting in September.

The IMF says in information posted on its website that annual inflation of 10.5% was now expected, compared with the September forecast of 11.7%.

The marked economic growth is related to an increase in tourism revenues, a surge in immigration, inflow of remittances and increase in transit trade, as well as strengthening of the national currency.

The IMF believes that medium term economic growth will be 5% as external inflows are restricted, global economic and financial conditions worsen and monetary policy tightens. Inflation will remain high due to rising commodity prices and increased domestic demand and will only reach the 3% target in 2024.

Experts attribute the consumption boom in Georgia to the influx of Russians into the country after the start of the military operation in Ukraine.

The Georgian National Statistics Service said on Monday that 443,600 Russian citizens or 27.7% of the total number of tourists visited the country in the third quarter. "In the third quarter of this year, visitors spent 4.6 billion lari [more than $1.7 billion] in Georgia," it said.

Georgia's GDP grew 10.4% in 2021.