27 Oct 2022 15:20

Russia's share of internationally traded gas could fall to 15% by 2030 - IEA

MOSCOW. Oct 27 (Interfax) - Russia's share of internationally traded gas could halve to 15% by 2030 as the country struggles to maintain export volumes, despite increasing pipeline gas supplies to China, the International Energy agency said in its World Energy Outlook 2022.

The agency said 2021 would prove to be a high‐water mark for Russian export flows. Its share of internationally traded gas, which stood at 30% in 2021, could falls to 15% by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario or STEPS and to 10% in the Announced Pledges Scenario or APS.

Deliveries to China in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) night from 10 billion cubic meters in 2021 to 50 bcm by 2030. This is largely achieved by ramping up the Power of Siberia pipeline, which delivers about 38 bcm per year and is supplied by the Chayandinskoye and Kovyktinskoye fields in Eastern Siberia. Also, Russia and China agreed early in 2022 to a new pipeline routing up to 10 bcm of production from Sakhalin into northeast China. "Overall, however, Russia's increased pipeline natural gas deliveries to China cover less than half of the drop in exports to Europe by 2030," the report says.

In Russia, gas production in the STEPS is 155 bcm per year lower in 2030 than it was in 2021. In the APS it is 210 bcm lower. The more mature fields in Western Siberia which currently serve Europe, such as Urengoy and Yamburg, are the most vulnerable.

"The flaring of associated gas has recently increased, and there is a short‐ term risk in all scenarios of large‐scale flaring or venting to ease system pipeline pressures Russia's efforts to diversify its export markets have mixed success," the IEA said.